Research in Support of the National Space Weather Program
Abstracts ofAwards FY1999
Below are listed Principal Investigator (PI) name,Institution, Title, and Abstract of Proposals awarded under the researchprogram in Support of the National Space Weather Program in 1999.
Anderson,Brian J. / Johns Hopkins University
SpaceWeather: Point Mosaic Auroral Imaging - Science Qualification Study
Theinvestigators will continue assessing the possibility of using data from theIRIDIUM satellites to continuously monitor the location of the auroral oval.The magnetometers on the satellites measure perturbations when passing throughfield-aligned currents associated with auroral precipitation. The combined datafrom many satellites can be used to identify the instantaneous location of theauroral oval on a global basis. The auroral oval reflects the global state ofthe magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the field-aligned currents are theprincipal means by which stresses are transmitted from the magnetosphere to theionosphere. The investigators will define the science products that can bederived from the IRIDIUM magnetometer data and perform scientific qualificationstudies of these products to determine their accuracy, reliability, andrelation to currently available monitors of the auroral boundaries, currents,and magnetospheric dynamics. The study includes the development of algorithmsfor handling the data from multiple spacecraft automatically, comparison ofresults for individual case studies, and the negotiation of an agreement withMotorola Corp. for long-term access to the data.
Ashour-Abdalla,Maha / University of California-Los Angeles
SpaceWeather: Penetration of High Energy Particles into the Earth
Thisprogram will utilize a combination of two computational techniques toinvestigate the penetration of high energy particles from the solar wind intothe Earth's magnetosphere. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations will be usedto determine the general interior structure and dynamics of the magnetosphereand a large-scale kinetic (LSK) code will be used to trace test particles todetermine where, how, and when energetic particles penetrate the magnetopauseand enter the magnetosphere. Particle tracing will then also be used todetermine how these energetic particles are transported within themagnetosphere
Baker,Daniel N. / University of Colorado at Boulder
SpaceWeather: Specifying Outer Belt Electrons by Data Assimilation
Thisresearch program will develop a method for assimilating energetic particle datafrom satellites into the empirical CRRES-ELE model for outer belt energeticparticles. The data assimilation technique to be used is a form of"nudging" that is commonly used in assimilating data into terrestrialweather models. The technique has already been shown to reduce the error in theCRESS-ELE model by as much as an order of magnitude. The goal of the programwill be to produce a model of outer belt energetic particles that is 80%accurate under all conditions. The outputs of the model will be tailored foruse by the NOAA Space Environment Center and the Air Force 55th Space Weathersquadron.
Burkepile, Joan T./ National Center For Atmospheric Research
Abstractmissing
Erickson,William C. / Erickson, William C
SpaceWeather: Investigations with the Bruny Island Radio Spectrometer
Theinvestigator will make the data obtained by the Bruny Island Radio Spectrometeravailable for Space Weather prediction. These data are in the frequency rangefrom 3 MHz to 47 MHz and bridge the gap between ground-based and space-basedsolar burst observations. Observations in this frequency range are importantfor Space Weather prediction because they cover a range of heights in the solaratmosphere where many disturbances die away while others originate andpropagate out into the interplanetary medium. Improvements to the Spectrometerwould be made to enhance its temporal coverage, sensitivity, and reliability. Amodest scientific program would be carried out to evaluate the effectiveness ofthe Bruny Island data in the context of Space Weather prediction.
Foster,John C. / Massachusetts Institute of Technology
SpaceWeather: A Quantitative Investigation of Ionospheric Density Gradients at MidLatitudes
Thisproposal will investigate the spatial extent and temporal evolution of theionospheric total electron content (TEC) and density altitude/latitudestructure at mid and sub-auroral latitudes as a function of solar cycle,season, and level of geomagnetic activity. Existing observations taken over twosolar cycles with the Millstone Hill incoherent scatter radar and available inthe on-line Millstone Hill database will be the principal data setinvestigated.
Communications and navigation systems relying on trans-ionospheric propagationmust be able to compensate for the effects of changing ionosphericcharacteristics over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Sharp changesin total electron content (TEC) are observed associated with the ionosphericdensity trough at mid latitudes over the northeastern US. An accuratecharacterization of these gradients and their variability is needed in thedesign and evaluation of navigation systems utilizing trans-ionosphericpropagation in this regime.
Goodrich,Charles C. / University of Maryland College Park
SpaceWeather: Radiation Belt Formation During Geomagnetic Storms
Thisproject will use Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations in conjunction with testparticle tracing to examine the formation of the outer radiation belt. Theouter radiation belt is known to be formed during geomagnetic storms, but thedetailed mechanisms by which electrons are energized to form the belt are verypoorly understood. MHD simulations will be used to determine the basicstructure and time development of the magnetospheric electric and magneticfields and at each time step, test particles will be followed to determinewhere and how they are energized.
Gopalswamy,N. / Catholic University of America
SpaceWeather: Shocks, Flares and Coronal Mass Elections
Theinvestigators will develop detailed physical pictures of a number ofgeoeffective solar eruptive events to serve as a reference for future dataacquisition, analysis and forecasting of space weather. Events in questionoccured in the pre-solar maximum epoch, and hence avoid confusion from theoverlap of different events. The approach is to identify the drivers of coronaland interplanetary shocks by analyzing more than two dozen type II radio burstsin conjunction with other data. For the first time, actual coronagraph data andflow speed will be used to determine the speed and starting height of coronaland interplanetary shocks.
Harvey,Karen L. / Solar Physics Research Corporation
SpaceWeather: HeI 1083 nm Signatures of Coronal Mass Ejections on the Solar Disk
Theinvestigators seek to discover the evolutionary sequence of events leading tothe initiation of coronal mass ejections (CME) occurring on the solar disk,guided by what has been learned about mass ejections from the solar limb. Thisis of basic importance to Space Weather, as the coronal mass ejectionsproducing geomagnetic storms occur primarily on the disk of the sun, whereasthose occurring on the limb are more easily observed due to the darkbackground. The main effort is to define signatures of disk coronal massejections in ground based data, specifically full disk images of the neutralhelium absorption line at 1083nm, based on detailed comparison with otherground based observations supplemented by ultraviolet and x-ray images obtainedfrom spacecraft.
Holt,John M. / Massachusetts Institute of Technology
SpaceWeather: Construction of a Web-based Empirical Model of the Earth's IonosphereUsing Incoherent Scatter Radar Data
This proposalis for the construction of a comprehensive web-based regional empirical modelof the ionosphere using incoherent scatter radar (ISR) data from the period1970-present. This model will include two parts: first, a model of basic andderived scalar parameters as measured at Millstone Hill, Massachusetts (42.6oN), including electron density Ne, electron and ion temperature (Te and Ti),neutral meridional wind, and exospheric temperature; and second, a model of theExB plasma drifts and corresponding electrostatic potential patterns, asobtained from measurements at Millstone Hill and at the Sondrestrom facility inGreenland (67.0oN). The parameters that will be modeled have been identified inthe National Space Weather Program (NSWP) Implementation Plan as important oneswhich must be specified and forecast in response to customer operationalsupport requirements. All of them have also been identified by the NSWP MetricsPanel as either 1st, 2nd, or 3rd priority parameters which define the state andcondition of the ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) system.
Inan,Umran S. / Stanford University
SpaceWeather: Continous Measurements of Intense Subauroral Relativistic ElectronPrecipitation and Its Effects on the Ionosphere and Mesosphere
Thisresearch project will develop a technique for measuring the electron densityenhancements due to precipitation of relativistic electrons from the outerradiation belts. VLF radio propagation effects will be used to determine therelative delays in propagation time between a number of different receiversites. These variations in the delay time will then be related to therelativistic electron fluxes observed by satellites such as SAMPEX, UARS andPOLAR. This technique would ultimately allow a network of receiver sites to monitornot only the space weather effects of precipitating relativistic electrons, butit would also be possible to infer the fluxes of relativistic electrons in theouter radiation belt.
Jackson,Bernard V. / University of California-San Diego
SpaceWeather: Tomography for use in Forecasting Heliospheric Conditions in theEarth's Environment
Theinvestigators will produce a three dimensional reconstruction of solar windstructures that interact with the Earth. The focus will be on the shape of thestructures, the interaction of the structures with the ambient solar windplasma, and the effect of the structures in modifying embedded solar magneticfields. Their approach is to upgrade a tomographic technique now in use toinvestigate the structure of the quiet solar wind in three dimensions. Severalremotely sensed datasets will be incorporated in the analysis, and the resultswill be checked against densities, velocities, and magnetic fields measured insitu by spacecraft where data are available.
Luhmann,Janet G. / University of California-Berkeley
SpaceWeather: Applications of GONG Magnetograms
Theinvestigators will extract solar wind information and locate potential CoronalMass Ejection (CME) sites at the sun from sequences of low spatial resolutionsynoptic maps derived from magnetograms. Their approach is to use the publiclyavailable GONG (Global Oscillation Network Group) data archive to upgrade thetime resolution and coverage of an established technique. GONG is acommunity-based project primarily intended to conduct a detailed study of solarinternal structure and dynamics using helioseismology. The GONGdistributed-site data will allow frequent (20 minute) sampling of the solarmagnetic field with reduced influence from local troposphere (as opposed tospace) weather or night time.
MacNeice,Peter J. / Drexel University
SPACEWEATHER: Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections
Theinvestigators will study the initiation mechanism of coronal mass ejections(CME) in order to enable physics based predictions of coronal mass ejectionoccurrence. The main effort is to extend calculation of a mechanism termed"magnetic breakout" in 2.5 and 3 dimensions using a numericaltechnique commonly referred to as adaptive mesh refinement. If this model isfound to be viable, it will result in a true physics-based scheme forpredicting coronal mass ejections. The model has been designed to achievesuperior computational performance on highly parallel computer systems expectedto be in use for space weather predictions in the coming decade.
McPherron,Robert L. / University of California-Los Angeles
SpaceWeather: Forecasting Relativistic Electron Fluxes at Synchronous Orbit
Thisprogram will utilize some new techniques for predicting the fluxes ofrelativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbit. This is an important topic inSpace Weather because energetic electrons at geosynchronous orbit at the"killer electrons" that are capable of damaging or disablingsatellites that are place in geostationary orbit. This program will firstcreate a large database on electron fluxes derived from a variety of DoE, NASA,and NOAA satellites. These data will be combined with data on the solar wind,magnetospheric data and ground-based data to produce a correlated database forempirical studies. Mapping functions will then be developed that will transformobservations made at an arbitrary local time to local noon. Time series ofnoon-time fluxes can then be used with a variety of prediction techniques, suchas linear predictive filters and neural networks to produce a new predictivecapability for the fluxes
Mendillo,Michael / Boston University
SpaceWeather: Sources of Ionospheric Variability: A Coordinated Data and ModelingApproach
Atwo-year effort is proposed to investigate the causes of ionosphericvariability using a state-of-the-art physical model and a large database ofionospheric observations. The HAO/NCARThermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamic General Circulation Model(TIME-GCM) has recently been coupled to the NCAR Community Climate Model -Version 3 (CCM/3) to assess the influence of Tropospheric-Stratospheric inputto the upper atmosphere. The first prolonged run of the merged TIME-GCM/CCM3was for a 365 day period characterized by constant solar flux and fixed auroraland magnetospheric inputs. The output of this simulation offers anextraordinary opportunity to conduct a series of validation studies usingexisting ionosonde data from the archived global network. Moreover, theopportunity to access diagnostic parameters beyond the peak density (NmF2),such as thermospheric densities, temperatures and winds and electrodynamicaldrifts, provides the information needed to interpret the results using knownphysical processes.
Richards,Philip G. / University of Alabama in Huntsville
Quantificationof Seasonal and Solar Cycle Variations of the Ionospheric Electron Density
The primary objective of this study is to improve thecapability of predicting ionospheric weather by improving the basicunderstanding of the climatology (long-term variations) of the F-regionionosphere. This objective will be accomplished through a detailed analysis ofthe seasonal and solar cycle variations of the ionospheric peak electrondensity (NmF2). Quantification of the reasons for the long term variations is anecessary prelude to solving the problem of predicting the day-to-dayvariability (weather). Of primary concern will be the determination of thedependence of observed NmF2 on both the daily and long-term solar activity indices(F10.7, F10.7A). Currently, this very basic relationship is not well known. Thecauses of the observed density variations will be explored with the aid of thetheoretical ionosphere model, known as the FLIP model, which is capable ofutilizing key ionospheric measurements as constraints. With the aid of a newlydeveloped algorithm to adjust the model neutral densities, comparison of theobserved and modeled electron density variations will enable the determinationof the changes in the neutral densities or photoionization rates that may berequired to reproduce the observations.
This study will lead to improved forecasting of ionospheric behavior bydetermining the underlying physical causes of the main variations inionospheric electron density.
Richardson,John D. / Massachusetts Institute of Technology
SpaceWeather: Using L1 Observations to Predict Solar Wind Conditions at Earth
Theinvestigators will characterize differences between solar wind conditionsobserved at the inner Lagrange point (L1), approximately 1.6 million kilometerssunward of the Earth and the conditions at Earth 30-60 minutes later when the"same" plasma arrives. The approach is to expand on previous work inwhich they developed empirical relations for the probability that solar windevents at L1 appear in a similar form at Earth. The new effort is toincorporate magnetic field data to determine whether magnetic field conditionsaffect plasma correlations.
Ridley,Aaron J. / Southwest Research Institute
SpaceWeather: Determining the Relationship between Substorm Onset and InterplanetaryConditions and Nightside Ionospheric Conductivity
Thisproposal focuses on how the expansion phase of a substorm [as first describedby Akasofu, 1964] is triggered. The expansion phase is the period of time inwhich there exist extremely large electric fields and high fluxes of energeticparticles in the ionosphere. The mechanism which triggers the start of theexpansion phase is still a mystery, after many years of research, although manyinteresting and well thought out theories have been put forth. Theinvestigation proposed here will focus on determining the influence of (1) theinterplanetary magnetic field, and (2) the ionospheric conductivity on theexpansion phase onset. This is an important proposal because it will address anumber of fundamental issues in the field of substorm expansion phase onsets.
Ronn,Alan E. / TRW Systems Integration Group
SpaceWeather: Architecture for Improving Space Weather Forecasting
Thisproject will develop the computer architecture for the Community CoordinatedModeling Center (CCMC). The development of a computer architecture (or 'spine')that will facilitate the inter-communication of different Space Weather modelsis critical to the success of the CCMC. The approach that will be developed bythis project involves a control program that will manage execution of theintegrated system, a toolbox of common reusable software applications such asdata visualization modules and coordinate transforms, an integrated set ofstandard system services and communication protocols, and a graphical userinterface (GUI). The system will be designed to facilitate communicationsbetween the CCMC front end located at Goddard Space Flight Center and thecluster of IBM SP2 nodes that forms the computational basis of the CCMC
Ruohoniemi,J. Michael / Johns Hopkins University
SpaceWeather: Auroral Arc-Referenced Convection Patterns
Specificationof the ionospheric electric fields at high latitudes is of critical importancefor both the research and operational components of the National Space WeatherProgram. This study of high-latitude electric fields will address that topic byutilizing information on the distribution of auroral luminosity in the mappingof convection patterns. This will be the first time that convection patternshave been extensively calibrated against auroral patterns. The study willresult in a new type of statistical convection model and significantimprovements in the mapping of instantaneous convection patterns. The newconvection model and the arc-referencing technique will be added to theSuperDARN global mapping analysis. The ramifications of using the improvedconvection mapping to study space weather effects will be explored. All of thedatabases, models, and results arising from the work will be made available tothe community via user-friendly interfaces at the JHU/APL SuperDARN Web site.
Sharber,James R. / Southwest Research Institute
SpaceWeather: A Climatology of Particle Inputs to the Terrestrial Atmospheric System
One ofthe most important aspects of space weather research is an understanding of theoutflow of particle energy from the Sun and its effect on the terrestrialenvironment. One approach to improving the understanding of the terrestrialeffects is to develop models of particle input which can provide spectral ortotal energy inputs as a function of position as well as global or hemisphericenergy input. This research proposes to achieve such a model by building on aclimatological model currently being developed using data from the UARSParticle Environment Monitor (PEM). The principal limitation of the PEM dataset and climatology is the lack of high-latitude coverage that results from the57-degree inclination of the UARS orbit. Accordingly, this proposal seeks toaugment the current UARS climatology with additional low-altitude data. Theprimary data set will be TIROS/NOAA spectral particle data since it containsspectral measurements up to the MeV range. Data from the ISIS 1 and 2 polarorbiters, which made spectral measurements from the keV to MeV range, will alsobe added to extend the coverage through the ~1970 solar maximum and decliningphase of Solar Cycle 20 and a portion of the ascending phase of Cycle 21. Thenew, extended climatology will be an empirical statistical model built using acombined low Earth orbit database from which the user may obtain averagespectral characteristics, precipitating particle fluxes, and ionization rateprofiles as functions of latitude, local time, and activity level. A uniqueaspect of this model will be the inclusion of differential measurements of highenergy fluxes that extend to the ~MeV range. The model may be made operationalby using solar wind measurements at the L1 point.
Sibeck,David G. / Johns Hopkins University
Abstractmissing
St.Cyr, O. C. / Computational Physics Inc
SpaceWeather Prediction Capability using SOHO LASCO and EIT
Theinvestigators will determine whether combined solar observations from a whitelight coronagraph and extreme ultraviolet imager on the SOHO spacecraft providean unambiguous signature of an Earthward directed coronal mass ejection (CME).They will also perform a statistical study of these observations as a predictorof geomagnetic storms. Their approach is to use 30 months of LASCO and EITobservations to expand the analysis from a few individual cases now publishedinto general rules suitable for forecasting. A technique for forecasting CME'sand their geomagnetic consequences would directly benefit the National SpaceWeather Program. The project should also provide scientific insight into thethree-dimensional structure of CME's.
Strickland,Douglas J. / Computational Physics Inc
SpaceWeather: DE-1 FUV-observed Thermospheric Disturbances and TheirSpatial/Temporal Correlation with Negative Ionospheric Storm Data
A three year investigation is proposed to address the evolution ofthermospherically disturbed regions produced during geomagnetic storms and theircorrelation with negative ionospheric storms. The proposal is motivated by thesuccessful outcome of a two year investigation by the PI under a NASA contractto derive thermospheric composition images on the dayside from DE-1 FUV imagingdata. The images are in the form of O/N2, the column abundance of O relative toN2 referenced to a fixed depth in the latter species. The work demonstratedthat the radiance data can be converted to O/N2 with sufficient accuracy toeffectively quantify the structure and intensity of regions of reduced O/N2 (Odepletion patches [ODPs]) arising from intense heating at high latitudes duringgeomagnetic storms. O/N2 images have been produced from various storm-time datashowing reductions in O/N2 by more than a factor of two over extendedmid-latitude regions. In the current work, the focus will be onfirst-principles ionospheric modeling to understand the behavior of theobserved ionosphere within thermospherically disturbed mid-latitude regions. Akey aspect of the modeling will be to reproduce the measurements inside andadjacent of O depleted regions within constraints imposed by DE-1-based O/N2.Whereas a key goal of the proposed NASA work will be correlating data with data(DE-based O/N2 with ionospheric measurements), here a key goal will be tobetter understand the neutral density behavior at E-region heights within Odepleted regions through the stated modeling effort. The approach is to attemptto replicate ionospheric observations during O depletion events by modifyingthe empirical models of neutral densities and winds used in the ionosphericmodels. That is, an attempt will be made to deduce something aboutthermospheric structure in O depletion events by working backwards from theobserved effects of these events on ionospheric structure. The long range goalis to be able to use satellite images of O/N2 to map out regions likely to beexperiencing negative ionospheric storm effects.
Tsyganenko,Nikolai A. / Raytheon Technical Services Company
SpaceWeather: Modeling and Forecast of the Geospace Magnetic Field, Based onSatellite Data
Thisprogram will develop a quantitative relation between the observed solar windand variations in the magnetic field in the Earth's magnetosphere. The newmagnetic field model will be based on the previous work done by the PI indeveloping magnetospheric field models. New data sets from the POLAR, GEOTAIL,CRRES, and GOES satellites will be correlated with Solar Wind parametersmeasured by the WIND and ACE satellites. This program will make significantimprovements to the most widely used magnetic field model in the Space physicsand Space Weather community. By indexing the resulting model to solar windconditions it will provide a greatly improved forecast ability.
Valladares,Cesar E. / Boston College
SpaceWeather of the Low-latitude Density and Forecast of Equatorial Spread-FPhenomena
Theinvestigators will deploy five Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers inSouth America to observe the day-to-day variability of the equatorialionosphere. They will use the data to study the background ionosphericconditions leading to the development of equatorial spread F (ESF). The goal isto understand the combined action of the number density, plasma drifts, neutralwinds, and electric fields in relation to irregularity formation. The fivereceivers will add to an existing network of 12, providing an unprecedentedlatitudinal range for observing equatorial plasma phenomena. The measurement oftotal electron content provided by the receivers will be used to determine thevertical profiles of electron density using tomographic inversion techniques.To interpret the data, the investigators will develop a theoretical model ofthe low latitude ionosphere whose output can be compared with the measurements.This combination of model and measurements will be applied to events coveringdifferent seasons, magnetic conditions, and solar activity levels. The resultswill be used to improve Space Weather forecasts of the mid-latitude ionosphereto reduce the impact on navigation and communication systems resulting fromionospheric irregularities.
Wing,Simon / Johns Hopkins University
SpaceWeather: MHD and Empirical Magnetosheath Models
Theinvestigators will develop a new generation magnetosheath model for a widerange of solar wind parameters and realistic magnetopause shapes. Many studiesof the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction require quantitative models formagnetosheath parameters. Such models are needed to time the arrival of solarwind features, determine whether conditions at the magnetopause are favorablefor reconnection, and to describe the magnetosheath plasma parameter input intothe cusp and mantle. The only existing models are gas dynamic models whichneglect the magnetic field. The investigators will develop a new model based onmagnetohydrodynamics (MHD). The results of this model will be compared toexisting gas dynamic models and to empirical models developed from in situsatellite data. The results will also be used to discriminate between variousproposed modes of magnetic merging on the dayside magnetopause. The MHDmagnetosheath model will help improve the understanding of the plasma processesand energy transfer in the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system and helpassess the terrestrial environmental variations due to changes in the solarwind and interplanetary magnetic field.
Wolf,Richard A. / William Marsh RiceUniversity
SpaceWeather: Geosynchronous Data Assimilation for an Operational MagnetosphereModel
Thisresearch program is designed to utilize data obtained from the Los AlamosNational Laboratory (LANL) Geosynchronous satellites to improve theMagnetospheric Specification Model (MSM) developed at Rice University. Theproject is a joint program with LANL (M. Thomsen, PI, ATM-9819875). The projectwill investigate methods of assimilating near real-time energetic particle datafrom the LANL satellites into the MSM. The project will also explore thesensitivity of the model output to the input data and will determine whichinput parameters provide the most useful improvements to the model output.Additionally, the project will make changes to the MSM code to make us ofadvances in computer capabilities.
Yamada,Masaaki / Department of Energy, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory
MRXExperiment, Study of Fundamental Physics of Magnetic Reconnection in aLaboratory Plasma
Thisproject is concerned with the fundamental physics of magnetic reconnection inlaboratory plasmas. The primary goal is to provide a comprehensive analysis ofthe local and global characteristics of the reconnection phenomenon and tocompare the experimental results with existing theory.
| Curator:
J.
Rumburg | Last Modified: 9/7/06 | Responsible
NASA Official: Richard R Fisher
|