Research in Support of the National Space Weather Program

Abstracts ofAwards FY1997

Below are listed Principal Investigator (PI) name,Institution, Title, and Abstract of Proposals awarded under the researchprogram in Support of the National Space Weather Program in 1997.

Bilitza, Dieter / Raytheon Technical Services Company

Space Weather: Improvement of Ionospheric Predictions

The investigators improve specification of the topsideelectron density and ion composition, using the International ReferenceIonosphere (IRI) model. Investigating the global and temporal variations ofpreviously determined topside model parameters, they establish a functionaldescription of these variations in terms of universal time, local time, season,solar cycle, magnetic activity and geographic and geomagnetic coordinates.Using incoherent scatter data, they investigate the profile shape near the Fpeak, an activity necessary in merging the new topside model with F peak modelsapplied in IRI. In addition, they study global and temporal variation patternsof characteristic topside ion composition parameters; like the upper transitionheight, where ion gas consists to equal parts of light ions and atomic oxygenions, and the ratio of ionized helium to ionized hydrogen. The ultimate goal ofthese systematic evaluations is to establish parameters that are mostinfluential in different altitude regimes and the underlying physics.

Dusenbery, Paul B. / Space Science Institute

Space Weather Outreach

This outreach project will bring space weather to a publicmuseum. Proposed mini-exhibits (not to be confused with the large travelingexhibit, Electric Space) will focus on what space weather is and how it affectshumans and technology. Newly designed interactives in the exhibits will connectthe cause of space currents to change and the affects on power grids andcommunications. Updated information will come from a variety of ground-basedand space-based platforms which visitors can access through a kiosk system.Combining hands-on activities and near-real-time information makes theseproposed exhibits uniquely important to space weather outreach.

Eccles, J. Vincent / Space Environment Corporation

Space Weather: Data-Enhanced Models for ESF Forecasts inCooperation with the WestPac Program

This investigators will apply existing models of theionosphere, electrodynamics, and instability growth rates to examine techniquesfor developing short-term forecasting of propagation disturbances of theequatorial ionosphere. The study will make use of the WestPac Project, anNSF-funded chain of ionospheric stations measuring parameters that control theRayleigh-Taylor instability, the source of equatorial spread F instabilities.Equatorial spread F produces disruption to the ionosphere that affects radiocommunication and is thus an important element of space weather. The modeldeveloped in this study will take advantage of the meridional specification ofionospheric conditions to characterize the conditions under which equatorialspread F forms. The study will also develop means by which ionospheric data canbe assimilated into a forecasting model that can be run on a low-cost personalcomputer.

Fuller-Rowell, Timothy J. / University of Colorado atBoulder

Space Weather: Development of a Mid- and High-LatitudeIonospheric Storm-Time Correction Map

This is a proposal to develop a storm-time correction mapthat will improve the ability of existing models to specify the variations inionospheric density associated with magnetic storms. During a geomagneticstorm, the ionosphere can be severely altered causing disruptions tocommunication and navigation systems. This project takes advantage of the newunderstanding of the response of the upper atmosphere to geomagnetic storms todevelop a correction map for the mid and high latitude ionosphere. Twoapproaches are planned. The first involves the use of a physically-basedCoupled Thermosphere Ionopshere Model, the second involves capturing theessential physics in an empirical description. The study will determine themost successful prescription for magnetospheric forcing of the upper atmosphereand will develop a measure of accuracy of prediction.

Hairston, Marc R. / University of Texas at Dallas

Space Weather: Evaluation of High Latitude IonosphericPotential Distribution Models Using DMSP Data

This is a study to quantitatively test the capabilities of awidely-used model of ionospheric plasma convection by comparing predictions toin situ electrostatic measurements from the Defense Meteorological SatelliteProgram (DMSP) satellites. One of the critical needs of space weatherforecasting is a reliable model of the polar cap ionospheric electrostaticpotential distribution pattern and the cross cap potential drop as they respondto changing conditions in the solar wind. To date the most comprehensive modelis one using a spherical harmonic expansion based on data from the DynamicsExplorer-2 satellite. The investigators will evaluate this model to providequantitative descriptions of the deviations from in situ DMSP satellitemeasurements as a function of interplanetary magnetic field variability. Theywill compare observed and predicted potential distributions along the satellitetracks to quantify differences attributable to time variations and real variationsfrom the model. Ultimately, this work will help develop more advanced models ofthe high-latitude potential distribution for use in space weather forecasts.

Harvey, Karen L. / Solar Physics Research Corporation

Space Weather: A Compilation and Study of the PropertiesofHe I 1083 nm Coronal Holes

The PI will reexamine the National Solar Observatory/KittPeak (NSF/KP) high-resolution daily and synoptic rotation helium 1083 nanometerspectroheliograms, and nearly simultaneous magnetograms, to produce a finalizedset of coronal hole maps. In making these maps, she will measure severalproperties of each identified coronal hole, such as the magnetic flux, area,position, average helium equivalent width, and heliographic position of coronalhole boundaries. Resultant maps and information will be published through theNSO/KP anonymous archive and atlas. Moreover, she will use these data toinvestigate the variation of coronal holes' properties on time-scales of daysto the solar cycle, coronal holes' relation to the emergence and evolution ofactive regions and the occurrence to coronal mass ejections. This research willprovide important clues to understanding short- and long-term evolution of thesolar magnetic fields, their extension into interplanetary space, and eventualeffects on Earth.

Kelly, John D. / SRI International

Space Weather: Event-Driven Operations and Analysis ofthe Sondrestrom Radar for the National Space Weather Program

Earth's ionosphere, the final link in the solar-terrestrial connection,is fundamental to understanding conditions where solar perturbations result indamage to technological systems, such as power distribution systems, navigationaids, and communication networks. The investigators, recognizing this need, arecreating a novel event-driven protocol adapting the Sondrestrom radaroperational mode, data analysis, and data dissemination to the specific needsof space weather modeling and specification teams. Specifically, theSondrestrom Radar Response System (SRRS) will enable operation during periodssubsequent to detection of a coronal mass ejection, from beginning to end.Coronal mass ejections can be detected early with upstream monitors such asSOHO and WIND satellites, and their probability for terrestrial impact can thenbe better calculated. The design and implementation of the SRRS will greatlyaccelerate the development of near-real time electrodynamic specification toolsfor eventual integration into space weather forecasting models.

Kiplinger, Alan L. / University of Colorado at Boulder

Space Weather: Interplanetary Proton-Associated FlaresEmphasizing Proton Predictions from Hard X-Ray and Microwave Observations

Most solar flares are classified as impulsive, having hardX-ray spectra that become relatively more energetic (or 'harden') as fluxesincrease, and 'soften' as fluxes decline. Conversely, hard X-ray spectraassociated with energetic interplanetary protons progressively 'harden' asfluxes decline. Although coronal mass ejection-associated shocks may producethe majority of interplanetary protons, moderate numbers of high energy protonsare also produced by progressively hardening flares; in fact, progressivelyhardening flares and coronal mass ejections often occur simultaneously. Thus,the investigator will focus on this progressively hardening flare to optimizeproton prediction algorithms for both hard X-rays and microwaves. In addition,he pursues a collaboration for modeling the particle acceleration site with aparticularly well-observed event, and new observations of hardening flares witha new hard X-ray spectrometer.

Lyon, John / Dartmouth College

Space Weather: Global Simulations as a Space Weather Tool

This project will undertake a systematic evaluation of thepossible operational use of global MHD simulations. This will be accomplishedby simulating a broad range of conditions using the Lyon MHD code (a verymature MHD model) and the results of the simulations will be compared withdata. An evaluation of model simplifications and reduced resolution to enhancethe computational speed will be undertaken. The effort will concentrate onidentifying the conditions under which the model output would be operationallyuseful.

McPherron, Robert L. / University of California-LosAngeles

Space Weather: Global MHD Simulations and DataComparisons Addressing Key Questions of Substorm Dynamics

The investigators will use a global circulation model of theEarth's magnetosphere to study key aspects of substorms and their globalconsequences. The methodology is to use solar wind data as input to thesimulation model and critically compare the results with observations in themagnetosphere and ionosphere. By combining simulation results withobservational data, the investigators will overcome the limited spatial andtemporal resolution of observations and be able to produce accurate, highresolution synoptic maps of the magnetosphere and ionosphere. With these mapsthe investigators will study key issues of substorm research, such as thedetailed topology of substorm current systems and the timing of substormsignatures. The research will lead to a better understanding of geomagneticactivity and substorms and aid in the development of improved space weatherpredictions.

Reiner, Michael J. / Raytheon Technical Services Company

Space Weather: Characteristics and Dynamics of CMEInduced Radio Emissions

The investigators are using visualization and trackingtechniques in studying interplanetary type II radio bursts observed remotelyfrom the Ulysses and WIND spacecraft. Type II emissions are generated whencoronal mass ejection-driven shocks propagate through the interplanetary mediumfrom sun to Earth, and provide an intermediate link in the solar-terrestrialconnection. The investigators will better understand (1) the physicalcharacteristics and dynamics of individual type II radio bursts, (2) therelationship of type II radiation to the coronal mass ejection-driven shocksand conditions in the interplanetary medium, (3) the characterization of thegeomagnetic response to radio emitting coronal mass ejections, and (4) theinterplanetary transport of coronal mass ejections, and predictions of theirarrival at Earth.

Sharma, A. Surjalal / University of Maryland College Park

Space Weather: Global and Regional Forecasting ofGeomagnetic Activity with Nonlinear Dynamical Models

This project will undertake the development of a database ofground magnetometers which will be utilized to extend the nonlinear state spacereconstruction technique to include spatially resolved predictions andvalidation. The objective of this work is to produce quantitative regionalpredictions of geomagnetic activity through the assimilation of ground basedand satellite data. The validation work needed to transition the research algorithmwill be undertaken and the near real-time results of the algorithm will beavailable via the WWW.

Sojka, Jan J. / Utah State University

Space Weather: Platform for Ionospheric InstabilityPrediction-High Latitude Gradient Drift Instability

This is a proposal to develop a software package which, wheninterfaced to a time evolving ionospheric representation, will yieldquantitative information about the growth and development of ionosphericirregularities at high latitudes. The software package will interfacedescriptions of irregularity growth and decay with a time dependent ionosphericmodel. As a proof of concept, the investigators will develop a module thatdescribes the growth rate of the gradient drift instability in the highlatitude ionosphere. The distribution of irregularities and their timehistories on specified magnetic flux tubes will be computed and graphicallydisplayed. These distributions will be compared with those obtained forscintillations measurements. Future updates to this instability model will berelatively straightforward because the platform will be developed to have amodular interface to the instability model. The overriding objective of thisstudy is to demonstrate that adequate progress has been made in large-scaleionospheric modeling to the point that both gradients in plasma density andelectric field structures are adequate to produce meaningful estimates of thelower limits to the gradient drift instability growth rate on a global scale.

Song, Paul / University of Michigan Ann Arbor

Space Weather: Development of a Model of Solar WindMagnetosphere-Ionosphere Interaction

This is a project to develop a model that specifies andforecasts the conditions of the magnetospheric bow shock, magnetosheath,magnetosphere, and ionosphere for given upstream solar wind conditions. Thestudy extends work currently being funded under the High Performance Computingand Communication (HPCC) program. While this code is utilizing advancednumerical schemes to achieve the best efficiency and accuracy, additional workis needed to apply it to space weather objectives. The effort consists of threemajor components. First, realistic physical parameters and boundary conditionswill be used to guide the model development. Second, the physical understandingof space weather events will be used to develop other theoretical models. Andthird, the investigators will compare the model output with observations forspecific space weather events. The end product of the project is a global MHDsimulation code able to both specify and forecast the state of the near-Earthspace environment.

Sotirelis, Thomas / Johns Hopkins University

Space Weather: Specification and Dynamics of theMagnetospheric State

This project will combine data from the DMSP and NOAA polarorbiting spacecraft from 1984 - 1997 to develop and compute indicesrepresenting magnetotail stretching, the open/closed boundary location andshape, and the enclosed open magnetic flux. Automated techniques based onneural nets will be used to process the vast amounts of data to develop adatabase containing information on the magnetospheric state. This will enablestatistical and prediciton filter studies as well as provide generalavailability of the indices for community use. The investigators will utilizethe database for correlation and prediction filter studies.

Tascione, Thomas F. / Sterling Software, ITD

Space Weather: Determining Space Weather Requirements forthe U.S. Commercial Space Community

This proposal must be considered in relation to thedeveloping interagency National Space Weather Program which is proceeding fromthe strategic plan phase to the implementation phase. As discussed in theproposal, however, the space weather requirements for the commericial spacecommunity are not well defined. In this project, site visits to commercialspace users will be utilized to determine space weather impacts to specificsystems and how space weather nowcast and forecast products could be utilizedby their operations to improve efficiency and effectiveness. Data collectedduring these visits will be utilized to determine customer needs for spaceweather bulletins, alerts, warnings, and forecasts. The analysis will include acost saving/cost avoidance trade-off study to establish the relevance of spaceweather services to the commercial sector.

Wang, Haimin / New Jersey Institute of Technology

Space Weather: Automated Early Warning of FilamentEruption

This project will fund a Ph.D. student at Big Bear SolarObservatory to establish an automated early warning system of filamenteruption. A computer program, developed to automatically recognize thestructure of filaments, will broadcast their disappearance to researchers viaelectronic mail. Broadcast information will include the time of eruption andthe coordinates and size of the filament. The student will establish a filamentindex based on the list of filament eruptions recorded by the automatedprogram. This index will account for frequency of filament eruption, size offilament, and disk location, and will be compared with indices of geomagneticactivity.

Webb, David F. / Boston College

Space Weather: Predicting Geomagnetic Storms from theMagnetic Orientations of Disappearing Filaments and X-Ray Arcades

This program will determine how well geomagnetic storms canbe predicted from magnetic polarities and orientation of disappearing filaments(DF) and soft x-ray arcades on the Sun. The PI will specifically addresswhether the topology of these fields is usually preserved upon eruption. Theapproach will involve: (1) a large data base of DFs, essentially independent offlares, for which the bounding polarities and geometrical orientations ofpreexisting filaments have been measured, (2) a determination of theseproperties for a data set of large-scale coronal x-ray arcades observed byYohkoh, (3) the solar locations of the filaments and arcades into GSMcoordinates so geometrical coupling effects influencing the occurrence rate andseverity of storms can be accounted for, and (4) a superposed epoch analysistechnique to compare different sets of the DF and arcade data with stormindices and a storm data set to determine which solar parameters are mostgeoeffective. The project results will improve understanding of solar massejecta characteristics that are most geoeffective, thereby enhancing theprediction of moderate to large storms, key to forecasting space weather.

Zank, Gary P. / Bartol Research Institute

Space Weather: Implications Arising from the Interactionof Energetic Particles with Shock Waves

The basic understanding of energetic particle accelerationand modulation is likely to be an integral component of future space weatherforecasting. This investigation addresses: (1) the acceleration of particles atcoronal mass ejection (CME)-driven shocks, (2) the interaction of galacticcosmic rays with the CME complex, and (3) the transport of energetic particlesto one astronomical unit. The PI will develop theoretical models describing thediffusive acceleration of energetic particles at fast CME associated shocks andtheir subsequent propagation through the interplanetary medium to Earth. Basedon a multi-dimensional study, he will also determine a detailed understandingof the time profiles and flux intensities of large proton events for a varietyof interplanetary magnetic field configurations. Project goals, then, willdeploy a unique blend of modeling, analysis and MHD simulations.