Research inSupport of the National Space Weather Program

Abstracts ofAwards FY1996

Below are listed Principal Investigator (PI) name,Institution, Title, and Abstract of Proposals awarded under the researchprogram in Support of the National Space Weather Program.

Anderson, Brian J. / Johns Hopkins University

Space Weather: Point-Mosaic Auroral Zone Imaging

The objective of this project is to obtain continuous, global, real-timemonitoring of the auroral size, configuration, and dynamics for use in spaceweather specification and warning systems and for near-term forecasting as aninput to global circulation models. The method is based upon the observationthat 0.1 - 100 Hz magnetic fluctuations appear to be a good identifier of theauroral oval at satellite altitudes. It may be possible then to utilizenon-science grade magnetometers used for attitude determination on the suitesof commerical communication and navigation satellites to provide continuousmonitoring of the auroral oval. The project will undertake a more thoroughinvestigation of the magnetic fluctuations and will examine test data from theRIDIUM attitude magnetometer to test the efficacy of the proposed method.

Chan, Anthony A. / William Marsh Rice University

Space Weather: Modeling the Killer Electrons

This project will undertake major additions to the Riceconvection Model (RCM) to increase its accuracy. 1. It will add the Rice OpenMagnetosphere Model (ROM) -- a highly mature, physics-based code that ties theRCM to the solar wind and IMF through the magnetopause. 2. It will add amagneto-friction-equilibrium relaxation technique to achieve particle and fieldself- consistency. 3. It will add an algorithm to take account of internalplasma sources and losses.

Codrescu, Mihail V. / University of Colorado at Boulder

Space Weather: Large Scale Ionospheric Structure Usingthe TOPEX/POSEIDON TEC Measurements

The PI plans to use TOPEX/POSEIDON data to analyze thespatial structure and temporal evolution of the ionosphere. In particular, heis interested in TEC manifestations of the response of the middle and lowlatitude ionosphere to geomagnetic storms and in TEC wave signatures. This dataanalysis procedure will also prepare TEC data for utilization in otherobjectives of the space weather program. The data provide an excellent databasefor model validation purposes, especially important over large ocean areaswhere ionosonde, GPS TEC, or other ground-based data are not available. TECmeasurements from the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission are an ideal data set for thevalidation of the new understanding of ionospheric storm effect distributions.

Decker, Dwight / Boston College

Space Weather: Forecasting the High Latitude F-RegionWeather

The PIs intend to test their prediction abilities on a givenday the location and timing of ionospheric irregularities in the high latitudeF region. Much of the high latitude F-region weather is cause by small scale(irregularities) and large scale (polar cap patches, polar cap arcs, boundaryblobs, subauroral blobs, auroral blobs, auroral ionospheric cavities) electrondensity structures. There is an intimate cause and effect relationship betweenthese small and large scale irregularities. The PIs will use the GlobalTheoretical Ionospheric Model (GTIM) to determine the requirements foraccurately forecasting patches and blobs, and, in turn, using expressions forinstability growth rates, forecast the appearance of electron densityirregularities. In sum, this three-year project will: (1) test current understandingof large scale F-region structures and their ability to produce small scaleirregularities, (2) confirm the role of two instability processes in generatingsmall scale irregularities, (3) test current capability to specify and forecastconditions in the high latitudes that impact satellite communications, (4) helpestablish what processes need to be included in any physics-based ionosphericweather model, and (5) establish the level of detail required in thehigh-latitude electric field in order to specify and forecast ionosphericweather.

Earle, Gregory D. / University of Texas at Dallas

Space Weather: Predicting Equatorial Spread-F via NeuralNetwork Analysis of DMSP Data

This grant will design, build, test and analyze a unique andinnovative computational tool for accurately predicting the occurrence ofequatorial spread-F. The tool will be based on an artificial neural system(ANS), or neural network. These systems are unique in their ability to learn tocharacterize complex relationships using historical data. The system will learnto interpret pre-sunset data from a DMSP satellite probe and variousground-based remote-sensing systems, and categorize these data to predict thelikelihood of post-sunset equatorial spread-F. Finally, once the ANS-basedpredictive tool has been developed, tested and validated, the nonlinear mappingthe system has learned will be examined and contrasted with the analyticalframework of plasma physics.

Fedder, Joel A. / George Mason University

Space Weather: Testing and Evaluation ofMagnetohydrodynamic Simulation for Space Weather Prediction

The objective of the project is to test how well astate-of-the-art global MHD code does in simulating a suite of five genericspace weather conditions. The five conditions are thoughtfully chosen such thatthe simulations will also provide useful insights into the physics behind theconditions. While global MHD is the only realistic large-scale modeling tool,its theoretical limitations are well known, and such tests are needed to estimatethe practical predictive capability of such codes at present.

Fejer, Bela G. / Utah State University

Space Weather: Global Semi-Empirical EquatorialElectrodynamic and Spread-F Model

The PIs will use extensive measurements and numericalmodeling to study the generation and evolution of spread-F irregularity andscintillation phenomena, and obtain a global semi-empirical equatorialelectrodynamic and spread-F model with predictive capabilities. Using Jicamarcaincoherent radar, global ionosonde and satellite measurements the investigatorswill determine the initial electrodynamic conditions for spread-F. Their radardata set will determine the height dependent ambient electrodynamic conditionsimmediately prior to the occurrence of spread-F, the location of the initialunstable layer, and its temporal and spatial evolution for different seasonsand flux conditions. Height gradients in the vertical and zonal plasma driftsin the bottomside and topside of the F layer may play important roles in the generationand evolution of equatorial spread-F. Additionally, the PIs will use extensiveionosonde and satellite data to determine the role of meridional neutral windsand magnetic declination effects, and extend the model to differentlongitudinal sectors. Finally, they will combine the Jicamarca radar driftmodel, the AE-E satellite model and ionosonde observations with the storm timeelectric field model at Utah State and the GTIM to obtain the first globalequatorial electrodynamic and spread-F model.

Henderson, Michael G. / Department of Energy AlbuquerqueOperations Office

Space Weather: A Test-Bed Geosynchronous Data Set for theRapid Prototyping of Space Weather Models

This project will prepare and deliver to the NSWP a valueadded data set providing a summary characterization of the energetic particleenvironment at geostationary orbit obtained from data from 1989 to the present.A statistical data set containing 1-day and 1-year averages which covers theentire 1989 - present interval from 4 geostationary spacecraft will beprepared. Included will be the mean flux values, the mode, maximum, minimum andstandard deviation of the fluxes (or fluences) over specific energy ranges andintegration time constants. In addition, spin averaged, 3- minute timeresolution data for the years 1990 - 1993 (near solar maximum and on thedeclining phase of the solar cycle) will be provided from three instrumentsfrom one geostationary craft. Relevant ancillary data such as solar wind data,geomagnetic data, etc. will be appended to the data sets.

Hill, Thomas W. / William Marsh Rice University

Space Weather: Modeling of Geomagnetic Storm Dynamics

This project will undertake major additions to the Riceconvection Model (RCM) to increase its accuracy. 1. It will add the Rice OpenMagnetosphere Model (ROM) -- a highly mature, physics-based code that ties theRCM to the solar wind and IMF through the magnetopause. 2. It will add amagnetofriction-equilibrium relaxation technique to achieve article and fieldself-consistency. 3. It will ad a algorithm to take account of internal plasmasources and losses.

Knipp, Delores J. / United States Air Force Academy

Space Weather: Global Electrodynamic Patterns forGeomagnetic Storms

The PIs plan to (1) complete the November 1993 space weatherstudy, (2) continue geomagnetic storm analysis using the Assimilative MappingIonospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE), and (2) improve the conductance andfield-aligned current mapping within the AMIE procedure. Completing the 1993data study will provide a first in-depth look at ionospheric and magnetosphericresponse to forcing by a combination of transient and recurrent phenomena inthe solar wind. Emphasizing four coronal mass ejection events, the PI willcontinue her support of the solar-terrestrial community at large. Finally,improving parameters within the AMIE procedure will provide importantinformation about the physical ties between the ionosphere and magnetosphere.

LaBonte, Barry J. / University of Hawaii

Space Weather: Coronal Magnetic Field Reconstruction as aTool

An important space weather prediction tool is the ability toreconstruct the coronal magnetic field above solar active regions fromobservations of the vector magnetic field at the photosphere. A variety ofnumerical methods for computing the coronal field from the boundary data havebeen developed over the last ten years. The logical next step is evaluating theperformance of the various existing numerical codes side by side on bothsynthetic and real data. This project will coordinate such an effort: testdatasets will be produced and distributed to collaborators, tools for analyzingand comparing results developed, results of the analysis publicized, and aworkshop organized for collaborators to discuss results of the comparison.

Linker, Jon A. / SAIC Science Applications InternationalCorporation

Space Weather: Forecasting the State of the Solar Wind

This grant will develop a computational model of the solarwind, capable of forecasting solar wind conditions based on remote observationsof the Sun. The PI will develop a comprehensive three-dimensionalmagnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model capable of computing solutions for the solarwind from its genesis at the Sun to beyond Earth orbit. Based on a robust MHDcode already used in 3-D calculations of the corona and solar wind, thisinstrument has produced agreeable calculations with coronal and heliosphericobservations. Key improvements to the code will be inclusion of importantdynamic and thermodynamic effects, including a transition region, radiation,thermal conduction, coronal heating and Alfven wave acceleration. The projectrelates to implementing the 1-D formalism into a 3-D MHD model, andparameterizing the important effects via comparison to Helios, WIND, and Ulyssessolar wind data. The grant's end result: a unique computational tool capable ofpredicting the evolving structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere.

McPherron, Robert L. / University of California-LosAngeles

Space Weather: Solar Wind and Magnetospheric Control onthe Ring Current

This is a proposal to study the problem of predicting theDst index which is driven by the growth and decay of the terrestrial ringcurrent. The study will be aimed at defining a better Dst index, creating aquick time Dst index for scientific investigations, and understanding the solarwind coupling function. The proposed approach uses both historical data and newdata available from satellite and ground-based instrumentation.

Mendillo, Michael / Boston University

Space Weather: IMF Control of Ionospheric Variability andElectrical Power Disruptions

This project investigates the ionospheric perturbationsimpacting radio communication systems, and the failures of electrical powercompanies. Both practical concerns and their associated strategic and economicimpacts are linked by the subtleties of the interplanetary magnetic filed(IMF). Studies show both of these have a severity that follows a semi-annualpattern, one with maxima during months spanning the equinoxes. This is a wellknown effect in geomagnetic activity linked to IMF interactions with theterrestrial magnetosphere. This project will extend the concept of such"geo-effectiveness" to the specification of ionospheric variability,as ordered and predicted by IMF geometry. The goal is to probe the fundamentalnature of IMF linkages to the inner terrestrial environment in order tounderstand how such major impacts as power failures can occur.

Petschek, Harry / MHP Incorporated

Matching User Needs and Space Weather ServiceCapabilities

The goal of this project is to facilitate and enhance thematch between user needs and the capabilities and products of the emergingspace weather service. It is noted that it is necessary for the success of anapplied program that the requirements of the eventual users must be introducedinto the planning of the program at an early stage. To facilitate this, thisprogram will involve establishing a close working relationship betweenengineers and operators in the user community and space scientists andforecasters. This will be accomplished through workshops. Activities will focuson seeking areas where 1) a close match between needs and capabilities alreadyexist, 2) better understanding of the capabilities and needs can generate moreeasily achievable matches, and 3) finding new areas where space weather servicecan be usefully applied. The output of this program will be suggestions ofspecific applications where either near term implementation or more detailedfeasibility studies should be considered.

Richardson, John D. / Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology

Space Weather: Using L1 Observations to Predict SolarWind Conditions at Earth

This study will develop empirical relations to determine theprobability that solar wind events at L1 appear in a similar form at Earth. ThePI will look at correlation coefficients between plasma and magnetic field dataat these two locations for various solar wind conditions to determine thereliability of L1 predictions for various solar wind conditions. In addition,he will look at specific features, such as pressure pulses and shocks, to seewhat percentage detected at L1 are observed at Earth and whether the strengthof these features varies from L1 to Earth. These empirical relations can thenbe incorporated into forecasting models to give a measure of the reliability ofthe predictions.

Ruohoniemi, J. Michael / Johns Hopkins University

Space Weather: Ionospheric Electric Fields at HighLatitudes

This project will apply the capabilities of the existingSuperDARN (Dual Auroral Radar Network) high frequency (HF) radar pairs in theArctic and Antarctic to the data needs of the National Space Weather Program(NSWP). These radars are operated in large arrays in both polar regions by severalnations. One of the principal ways in which solar activity influences the Earthis through the effect of the solar wind on the magnetosphere and the upperatmosphere. The SuperDARN radars measure the flow velocity of ionosphericstructures in the upper atmosphere from which the driving magnetosphericelectric fields can be deduced, thus in its present form the radars can provideimportant data for the research component of the NSWP. Additionally, theproject will implement real-time data links which will provide alerts of suddendisturbances in the near-Earth space environment.

Seyler, Charles E. / Cornell University – Endowed

Space Weather: Structure and Evolution of BottomsideF-Region Irregularities

This project will address the physical nature of irregularitiesin the bottomside F-region equatorial ionosphere. These processes are asignificant contributor to equatorial ionosphere weather, and can affect theperformance of HF communication and over-the-horizon radar systems. Theinvestigators will conduct a low-cost experimental campaign using the dualcoherent and incoherent radar capabilities at Jicamarca to study the genre ofirregularities known as bottomside spread-F. They will use numerical simulationmodeling of the F-layer in conjunction with the observational data to formulatea theoretical basis for observations and provide predictive capability for theoccurrence of bottomside spread-F and full scale equatorial spread-F.

Sibeck, David G. / Johns Hopkins University

Space Weather: Concerning the Solar Wind Input into theMagnetosphere

is project will better determine the conditions under whichnear- Earth solar wind monitors can be relied upon to measure the parametersarriving at the dayside magnetopause. Using upstream spacecraft such as IMP-8,ISEE 1/2, and IRM, the project will attempt to (1) determine scale sizes ofsolar wind features, (2) compare observed and predicted time lags fortangential and rotationl discontinuities, (3) determine how well IMF Bz can bepredicted from upstream monitors, (4) test if high time resolution magneticfield measurements can proxy for dynamic pressure, (5) determine how theforeshock preconditions the solar wind, and (6) determine how the wavesgenerated by discontinuities interacting with the bow shock propagate to themagnetopause.

Tsunoda, Roland T. / SRI International

Space Weather: Short-Term Forecasting of Plasma StructureDevelopment in the Equatorial Ionosphere

The PI will conduct a three-year program to develop ashort-term forecasting capability for propagation disturbances in theequatorial ionosphere. Specifically, he will address the day-to-day variabilityin the development of plasma structure in the nighttime equatorial ionosphere.This will be accomplished with a meridional chain of ionospheric stations thatspans the magnetic dip equator. This chain will enable simultaneousmeasurements in the plasma-density distribution as a function of altitude anddip latitude in both hemispheres. Moreover, measurements of the neutral windwill not be necessary. Specific aims of the project are: (1) simultaneouslymeasure the plasma-density distribution as a function of altitude and diplatitude, along a magnetic meridian in both hemispheres, (2) measure conjugateE-region characteristics in both hemispheres during the development of ESF, (3)evaluate the precursor signature for ESF development using measurements in bothhemispheres, (4) perform comprehensive tests of various short-term forecastingmethods, and (5) measure the longitudinal correlation of nightly ESFdevelopment.

Wang, Chunming / University of Southern California

Space Weather: Monitoring and Prediction with a GPS-DataAssimilation Model

The investigators will develop a data assimilationionospheric model to be driven mainly by data obtained from the GlobalPositioning System (GPS). This model will overcome limitations experienced inobtaining measurements through total electron content tomography, relying onthe first principle dynamical equations governing the state of the ionosphere.The main goals of the project are: (1) developing a mid- and low-latitude dataassimilation model based on an existing physics-based model, (2) using thetotal electron content data obtained from the continuously tracking groundnetwork of GPS receivers as input to the model, (3) using the total electroncontent data obtained from a low-Earth orbiter tracking GPS as input to themodel, (4) deriving a 3-D field of electron density, (5) evaluating theaccuracy of the model by comparing to independent measurements, and (6)evaluating the predictive power of the model by comparing predictedmeasurements to actual ones.