Research in Support of the National Space Weather Program

Abstracts ofAwards FY2003

Below are listed Principal Investigator (PI) name,Institution, Title, and Abstract of Proposals awarded under the researchprogram in Support of the National Space Weather Program in 2003.

Codrescu,Mihail V. / University of Colorado at Boulder

Space Weather: On the Quantification of Energy Sourcesand Sinks in the Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere System

In thiseffort, the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics(CTIPe) model, originally developed for use on supercomputers, will beimplemented in the desktop computer environment for broader use at theCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA Goddard Space FlightCenter. The PIs will reassess and modify the current model to achieve improvedaccuracy. The proposers plan a three-step approach to quantifying the energysources and sinks that affect the outputs of the CTIPe model. The first stepwill reproduce the global steady-state thermosphere and ionosphere derived fromthe MSIS and IRI models by self-consistently adjusting the energy sources andsinks in the CTIPe model (e.g. UV and EUV heating, NO cooling, Joule heating,etc.). The intention is to systematically adjust the appropriate energy sourcesand sinks in CTIPe in order to reproduce the global structure of theempirically modeled thermosphere and ionosphere. The second step will comparesteady-state CTIPe model runs against climatology data from the TIMED missionfor further adjustment of the energy sources and sinks. The third step willcompare the model, with appropriate sources and sinks, to TIMED and groundbased data.

Chi,Pi-Jen / University of California-Los Angeles

Mid-ContinentMagnetoseismic Chain (McMaC)

This project will fund the installation of 9 new magnetometers in the U.S. andMexico. Data from these new stations will be combined with data from theCANOPUS magnetometers in Canada and the IGPP-LANL magnetometers in the U.S. toform a mid-continent magnetometer chain of 22 magnetometers. The project willdevelop the data analysis tools for using the magnetometer in a manner that issomewhat analogous to seismology and is therefore being called"magnetoseismology." Ultra-Low-Frequency waves detected by themagnetometers will be used to determine the location of the plasmapause and todetermine the plasma density within the magnetosphere. Two methods of analysiswill be investigated. The first is an eigenmode analysis which determines themass loading on a magnetic field line be the eigenfrequency of the waves on thefield line. The second method will utilize the time of arrive of impulsivesignals to determine the density structure within the magnetosphere. The twotechniques will provide an inexpensive method of remote sensing of the plasmadensity of the magnetosphere. The technique will be validated by using in situmeasurements from a variety of satellites. The project will provide data thatcan be used in space weather nowcasting and forecasting. The project willinclude participation by high school students and university undergraduates.The density data resulting from the project will be an essential resource fortwo UCLA Ph.D students doing related research.

Eccles,J. Vincent / Space Environment Corporation

SpaceWeather: Accuracy of Ionospheric Models at Mid-Latitudes over Solar, Season,Diurnal, and Geomagnetic Variabilities: Implementation of Ionospheric Metric atCCMC

Theproject will examine state-of-the-art ionospheric models (both physics basedand empirical) and the National Space Weather Program (NSWP) ionosphericmetrics, exploiting the large data set derived from Arecibo observations overthe past 30 years. This data set has a reasonably uniform distribution overseasonal variations and disturbed conditions. This research will implement NSWPionospheric metrics on three models, namely, the International ReferenceIonosphere (IRI), the Ionospheric Forecast Model (IFM), and Coupled IonosphereThermosphere Plasmasphere electrodynamics (CITPe), using the entire AreciboIncoherent Scatter Radar (ISR) database. Software will be developed toautomatically select ISR data and generate quantitative observationaluncertainties, based on instrument performance, statistics, and ionosphericvariability. The host for this metric software system will be the CommunityCoordinated Model Center (CCMC) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The endresult of this effort will be to provide users with a reliable metricassessment of these ionospheric models.

Fisk,Lennard A. / University of Michigan Ann Arbor

SpaceWeather: Predicting the Heliosphere

The aim of this investigation is to fashion a conceptualframework for connecting magnetic flux emergence at the solar surface with theevolution of the overlying solar atmosphere and the solar wind. This will beaccomplished by developing a physical theory, and thus a usable model based onthis theory, which describes the coupling between the emergence of magneticflux on the sun and the formation of the heliosphere. The critical premise ofthe effort is magnetic reconnection between closed-field loops and open fieldlines. This leads to (i) transport of magnetic flux, (ii) evolution of closedand open field regions, (iii) non-thermal heating of the coronal plasma, and(iv) acceleration and structuring of the solar wind. Each step in the chainwill be examined and a quantitative prediction made of the processes involved.These predictions will be compared with observations and tested, therebyproducing a conceptual, and physically intuitive, paradigm for this complexsystem.

Forbes,Kevin F. / Catholic University of America

SpaceWeather: The Economic Impact of Space Weather on the Electricity Market: AComparative Analysis

The PIshave recently developed an econometric model to examine the impact of spaceweather on the wholesale price of electricity. They have worked with the"PJM" power pool in eastern North America, incorporatingPennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, and the Washington D.C.metropolitan area. Previous results have indicated the presence of spaceweather effects on the price of electricity. In fact, these results show thatthe real-time price is affected by even moderate geomagnetic storms and thatthe estimated average impact is a nontrivial 4.5 percent of the real-time PJMprice. This new proposal seeks to refine the original estimate using localmagnetometer data as a measure of space weather, as opposed to the Dst indexthat had been exploited previously. The PIs also want to examine the spaceweather impact on other power grids, including "NordPool" (the powergrid for Sweden, Finland, Norway, and Denmark), the California Power Pool, andothers.

Hughes,John M. / University of Alaska Fairbanks Campus

SpaceWeather: Real-time Ionospheric Specification Using the Super Dual Auroral RadarNetwork

Thisproposal will improve techniques used by the fifteen SuperDARN radars todetermine in real-time the critical frequency and layer height at theionospheric reflection point. These observations will be made over largegeographical regions that are currently sparsely sampled by ionosondes. Thiseffort represents a new use of the SuperDARN system in "soundingmode." This new mode of operation has been developed and implemented bythe PI at the Kodiak radar. The sounding mode exploits the pause time (~10 sec)during the normal azimuth scan mode, making use of ground reflections todetermine the skip distance of rays at various frequencies. By determining howthe skip distance varies with frequency, it will be possible to find themaximum useable frequency as a function of ground range. The PI's main goalsinvolve six distinct research activities: (1) modification of current SuperDARNsoftware to include angle-of-arrival (AOA) information in the real-time datastream; (2) use of sounding mode data to determine real-time ionosphericcritical frequencies and layer heights; (3) use of critical frequencydeterminations to observe, track, and study the dynamics of large-scale highlatitude ionospheric density irregularities; (4) distribution of SuperDARNreal-time foF2 values and virtual heights to the space weather community viathe internet; (5) continued development of the SuperDARN sounding modetechnique; and (6) use of sounding mode data to optimize the operatingfrequency at each SuperDARN radar.

Jahn,Jorg-Micha / Southwest Research Institute

SpaceWeather: Determining Electric Fields through Inversion of Charged ParticleDrift Measurements from a Finite Number of Spacecraft

Theexistence, structure and dynamics of magnetic and electric fields in the innermagnetosphere define the movement of charged particles throughout that region.Knowledge of these fields is necessary to understand the particle dynamics,regardless of the level of geomagnetic activity. In the area of magneticfields, there are good models which allow the field to be quickly and easilycalculated for a variety of different conditions. This cannot be said for theelectric fields in the magnetosphere. The biggest untapped resource, which canhelp us improve our knowledge and description of magnetospheric electric fieldsis that of numerous in-situ plasma particle measurements. This project willdevelop an inversion technique which combines the use of in situ plasmaparticle measurements with the framework of the UBK theory. The inversiontechnique will use charged particle measurements and the UBK theory tocalculate electric fields even in the absence of direct electric fieldmeasurements. The project will also investigate what fleet of satellites wouldbe necessary to invert the electric field for a known magnetic fieldconfiguration. This will include specifying fields in the inner magnetosphereas a whole, or in sub-regions of it (e.g. the tail only, dayside only etc.).This will determine what results could be expected from existing constellationsof spacecraft (GPS, LANL, Geo, GOES, Cluster, POLAR, GEOTAIL, all of which areoperational at the same time). The research will be embedded into an outreachprogram specifically designed to high school and college students.

Jordanova,Vania K. / University of New Hampshire

SpaceWeather: Modeling Ring Current and Radiation Belt Dynamics in Relation toInterplanetary Parameters

A globalnumerical model of the Earth's ring current will be enhanced with a number ofimprovements. A more realistic magnetic field model will be incorporated byusing the magnetic field configuration models developed by Tsyganenko. Theelectric field model developed by Weimer will allow a more realistic electricfield model that depends on solar wind conditions will be added. In addition,the kinetic model of Jordanova et al. will be extended to include electrons andrelativistic energies. Radial diffusion of particles will be included in themodel as well. Ring current and radiation belt dynamics will be simulatedduring representative magnetic storms. These results will be used to revealsystematic behavior that will foster the development of a predictive model. Thespatial regions of intense ion and electron precipitation will be obtained andthe rates of particle loss due to resonant interaction with plasma waves willbe assessed. Comparisons with available satellite data will be made to test themodel results. The project will contribute to the goals of the National SpaceWeather Program and also has relevance to the NASA Living with a Star program.The project will also provide support for a graduate student.

Korzennik,Sylvain G. / Smithsonian Institution Astrophysical Observatory

SpaceWeather: Seismic Study of the Solar Subsurface Based on Robust Time-DistanceInferences Using Upgraded Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG+) InstrumentObservations

Thisresearch will contribute to the development of a robust time-distance analysisand inversion methodology to use the solar acoustic oscillations to infer thethree-dimensional subsurface structure of magnetic flux concentrations risingfrom the solar interior. It will permit one to better characterize the actualdiagnostic potential of the method and to better understand the biases in theinferred solutions introduced by the topology of the associated annihilator,while addressing trade-off issues between resolution in space and time versuserror magnification. Such a development of time-distance analysis techniques isa key element needed to maximize the scientific return of the upgraded GlobalOscillation Network Group (GONG) instruments, and it also offers the potentialof a long-range forecasting tool for the National Space Weather Program.

Ohtani,Shin-ichi / Johns Hopkins University

SpaceWeather: Intensity and Asymmetry of the Storm-Time Ring Current: Quantificationand Prediction

Thedevelopment and decay of magnetic storms has traditionally been addressed interms of the Dst magnetic index. Although the Dst index is traditionallythought of as a measure of the intensity of the ring current, electric currentson the magnetopause and in the Earth's magnetotail make significantcontributions. Using the Dst index thus leads to inaccuracies in estimates ofthe intensity of the ring current as well as inaccuracies in the timing of thedevelopment and decay of the ring current. In addition, the Dst index does notprovide any information about the local-time distribution of the ring current.This project will utilize data from the IMAGE/HENA instrument along withmagnetometer data (1) to develop a new index that accurately reflects theintensity of the ring current, (2) to address the predictability of the newindex by examining the characteristics of its response to solar windconditions, (3) to quantify the asymmetry of the ring current by parameterizingthe local-time distribution of the ring current, and (4) to examine the ringcurrent in terms of the Asy-H and Sym-H indices and relate that to the developmentof magnetic substorms. The new index will provide a more useful measure of thedynamical features of the ring current and the progression of magnetic storms.

Salah,Joseph E. / Massachusetts Institute of Technology

SpaceWeather: LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR) Design Study for Space Weather

Thecapabilities of the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR) for the observation of solartransient events such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and for mapping ofdensity and velocity structures in the inner heliosphere will be ascertained.The necessary requirements for LOFAR to contribute to space weather studieswill subsequently be determined. An exploration of the feasibility ofdetermining the magnetic field within a CME, by Faraday rotation of thepolarization of cosmic sources, will be conducted. This would provide a noveland extremely important input to the determination of the geo-effectiveness ofCMEs impacting the magnetosphere. These activities will contribute to thedevelopment of advanced remote sensing instrumentation for improved detectionand understanding of key space weather phenomena.

Sharma,A. Surjalal / University of Maryland College Park

SpaceWeather: Spatio-Temporal Dynamics During Strong Solar Wind - MagnetosphereCoupling

The mainsolar wind features that drive magnetic storms are the dynamic pressure and theinduced electric field. In the magnetosphere, plasma convection and magneticsubstorms are the dominant processes that influence the ring current. Thisproject will use the observational data from multi-spacecraft and multi-stationground-based measurements to study the different factors that lead to theextreme conditions in the magnetosphere. The techniques of reconstruction ofdynamics from time series data will be used to build models of magnetosphericdynamics, and in particular the ring current build-up and decay. Global stormfeatures can be predicted using data-derived models. Multi-scale features canbe predicted only in the statistical sense, but the statistical variations canbe used to place limits on predictability of storms. The primary task for theproject will be a study of the spatial structure of the storm timedisturbances, the global and multi-scale features of storms and theirpredictability, and the relative role of solar wind variables (electric field,dynamic pressure, density, etc.) as drivers of extreme conditions. The stressedmagnetic field in the Earth's magnetotail is one of the most important forms ofstored energy and its contribution to space weather hazards will be studiedusing multi-spacecraft data of the lobe field, polar cap size and relatedvariables. An important feature of the dynamical techniques that will be usedis their ability to determine the causal relationship between the solar windand magnetospheric variables. These causal relationships will be used toidentify the key solar wind variables responsible for the extreme conditions inthe magnetosphere.

Shepherd,Simon G. / Dartmouth College

SpaceWeather: Induced Electric and Magnetic Fields in a Non-Uniformly ConductingEarth: Coastal Effects

Thisproposal focuses on increasing our understanding of Geomagnetically InducedCurrents (GICs) near conductivity gradients associated with coastlines. Theeffort will address the instrumental biases of ground magnetometers due tothese gradient structures. The PIs invoke a novel pseudo-current sourcetechnique to allow analysis beyond the reach of past finite element methods.Their new method for calculating the electric and magnetic fields at theEarth's surface during space storms, called the "method of auxiliarysources" (MAS), will be investigated, developed, and applied, thus meetingthe goals of the NSWP. MAS allows a more sophisticated treatment of laterallynon-uniform ground conductivity structures, such as ocean-continent boundaries.The proposed research could provide an important link in the space weatherchain by coupling the ionosphere to the ground.

Takahashi,Kazue / Johns Hopkins University

SpaceWeather: Spacecraft Observations of Storm Time Ultra-Low-Frequency Waves

The fluxof relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt changes dramaticallyduring the course of a geomagnetic storm. The flux reaches a level that cancause disruption of spacecraft operations and endanger human activities inspace. This project will identify the mechanism of the flux changes. Ingeneral, a time varying electric field is required to cause temporal variationsof particle populations and in the case of storm time relativistic electronsULF waves in the 1-10 min period have been suggested as the source of thatelectric field. The specific objective of project is to find the mode andamplitude of storm time ULF waves using in-situ measurements from satellitesand correlative measurements on the ground. Magnetic and electric fieldmeasurements from the Polar and GOES spacecraft and ground magnetometers areused to determine the frequency, amplitude, polarization, and spatial structureof ULF waves in the Pc 3-5 bands (period 10-600 s). The amplitude of the waveis compared with the flux of electrons measured by spacecraft in order toverify the causal relationship between waves and electrons. Previous studies ofthe relationship between electron flux and ULF waves were based on wavesobserved on the ground. Ground observations are limited in that they do notprovide direct measure of the electric field and they are strongly screened bythe ionosphere. By contrast, in-situ measurements by satellites provide directinformation on the electric field and other properties of the wave. Once thewave properties are understood they can be used to model the effect of ULFwaves on the radiation belt particles. This will lead to a better prediction ofthe behavior of the variations of particle fluxes, which is a high-prioritygoal of National Space Weather Program (NSWP).

Tsunoda,Roland T. / SRI International

SpaceWeather: A Two-Radar Investigation of Short-Term Forecasting of EquatorialSpread F

Thisproposal will improve short-term forecasting of equatorial spread-F (ESF) bythe correlative analysis of radar and ionosonde measurements made at Pohnpei,Micronesia and Christmas Island, Kiribati, two equatorial locations separatedby about 44.5 degrees longitude (about three local solar hours) in the centralPacific. This proposal addresses prediction of the onset of ESF and theresulting radio-wave scintillation that can severely impact satellitecommunication and navigation systems. It focuses on investigating thereliability of potential precursors for ESF onset and on the spatial-temporalcoherence of these precursors. These new radar measurements will be ofconsiderable importance for investigating ESF in support of the Air Force'supcoming C/NOFS satellite mission, and will provide a valuable new data set forthe space weather research community.

Wang,Haimin / Foundation @ NJIT, New Jersey Institute of Technology

SpaceWeather: Study of Evolution of Magnetic Fields Associated with Flares, FilamentEruptions and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)

Motivatedby the recent discovery of a possible connection between sudden changes inactive region magnetic flux at the solar surface and the onset of a solar flareor coronal mass ejection, a coordinated study of the five best events will beundertaken to elucidate the physical underpinning of this connection. Theunprecedented coverage of these events includes magnetograms from the Big BearSolar Observatory, the Michelson Doppler Imager, the Mees Solar Observatory,and the Marshall Space Flight Center, and coronal data obtained by EIT, TRACEand Yohkoh. The second part of this effort will identify a set of events withhigh quality data coverage and associated coronal mass ejections, to determinethe nature of the statistical basis of this connection. The results of thisstudy will enable the community to establish space weather forecasting tools bymonitoring photospheric magnetic field evolution, such as rapid flux emergenceor cancellation, and the sudden acceleration of shear flows.

Wu,Shi T. / University of Alabama in Huntsville

SpaceWeather: Numerical Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) Study of Coronal Mass Ejections(CMEs): Initiation and Propagation

Athree-year research program is pursued with the goal of using numericalmagnetohydro-dynamic (MHD) models and observations to sturdy the initiation andpropagation of solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs). There are two components tothis activity, (i) to study the fundamental physics of solar eruptivephenomena, specifically the CME initiation process and propagation, and (ii) topredict the disturbed solar wind parameters which are important tosolar-interplanetary-magnetosphere coupling studies. The overarching objectiveof this work is to lay the foundation for the development of a science-basedspace weather predictive model.