Research in Support of the National Space Weather Program

Abstracts ofAwards FY2002

Below are listed Principal Investigator (PI) name,Institution, Title, and Abstract of Proposals awarded under the researchprogram in Support of the National Space Weather Program in 2002.

Anderson,David N. / University of Colorado at Boulder

SpaceWeather: Unique Determination of Equatorial Electrodynamics Using Ground-basedMagnetometers

Thisproject addresses a new and unique technique for estimating the daytime, verticalExB drift velocities in the equatorial ionospheric F region from ground-basedmagnetometer observations. It has recently been demonstrated, quantitatively,that the strength of the daytime upward ExB drift velocity is linearly relatedto the difference between the horizontal H component values measured by amagnetometer located on the magnetic equator and one 6 to 9 degrees away inlatitude. This project plans to extend the results of this unique finding byasking the fundamental question: How does this delta H versus ExB relationshipvary with season, geomagnetic activity and solar activity? An answer to thisquestion provides answers in turn to a variety of space weather scientificquestions as well as applying the technique, immediately, to Operational RealTime Ionospheric Specification and Forecast Models currently under developmentin support of civilian and military customers.

Araujo-Pradere,Eduardo A. / University of Colorado at Boulder

SpaceWeather: Storm-Time Response of Ionospheric Total Electron Content

Theprimary goal of this project is to determine the characteristics of theresponse of the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) to geomagnetic storms.The study will utilize the extensive ground-based, dual-frequency, GlobalPositioning System (GPS) measurements of TEC. A recent study has shown that bysorting F-region ionosonde data (NmF2) as a function of a new index of stormmagnitude, a consistent repeatable picture begins to emerge in each season andlatitude. The PIs will perform a similar analysis of total electron content,and compare and contrast the geophysical response with NmF2. This study willcontribute to the understanding of the ionospheric response to geomagneticstorms. In the context of the National Space Weather Program, the work willprovide the information to hopefully lead to an operational product for thebenefit of a range of single frequency GPS users.

Ashour-Abdalla,Maha / University of California-Los Angeles

SpaceWeather: Effects of the Solar Wind Variability on Magnetosphere-IonosphereWeather Predictions

Thisproject will utilize magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of themagnetosphere-ionosphere system to examine the sensitivity of MHD simulationsto variability of the solar wind driver. The work will compare the variabilityinduced by intrinsic, internal magnetospheric dynamics with the variabilitycaused by both temporal and spatial variability in the solar wind. Case studieswill be done with real events to allow for comparisons of the simulations withrealistic conditions. This work will provide a mechanism for determining theaccuracy with which MHD models might in the future be able to predict spaceweather conditions.

Baker,Daniel N. / University of Colorado at Boulder

SpaceWeather: Radiation Belt Specification and Forecasting with Data Assimilation

This project will use four-dimensional data assimilation to dynamically specifythe condition of the Earth's electron radiation belts from very near theEarth's surface out to a distance of 10 Earth radii. It will utilize data fromthe Los Alamos geostationary satellites, the NOAA GOES satellites and the GPSsatellites. Additional data will come from the SAMPEX and Polar satellites. Twoempirical prediction techniques will be used. The first is an Auto-RegressiveMoving Average model based on linear system identification theory. The secondis a model based on the concept of historical analogs. The two techniques willbe compared with one another in order to determine under what conditions each techniqueis most appropriate.

Berdichevsky,Daniel B. / L-3 Communications Analytics Corporation

SpaceWeather: Predicting Radiation Level at Shocks Passage at Earth

Thisstudy will combine solar images derived from SOHO/LASCO and EIT and in-situsolar wind observations of interplanetary shocks with magnetohydrodynamicsimulations of the global characteristics of the shock. From this synthesis onemay derive information on the shock source location with respect to the Earth,the size of the coronal mass ejection, the shock compression parameters andcharacteristics of the magnetized plasma flow at its in situ observation at 1AU. This information will be used to identify the effect on the level of solarenergetic particles at shock passage at 1 AU. As a result of this analysis, itshould thus be possible to develop a better forecast capability for radiationlevels at Earth than what is currently available through the NOAA space weatherservice.

Bieber,John W. / University of Delaware

SpaceWeather: Prediction with Cosmic Rays

Theactivities of this proposal are aimed at exploiting the "Forbushdecrease", a region of suppressed cosmic ray density located downstream ofcoronal mass ejection (CME) shock fronts, for the purpose of predicting with alead time of some 4-8 hours the arrival of a CME at Earth. Muon detectors andneutron monitors will be utilized to detect the loss-cone anisotropy ofenergetic particles which escape from the "Forbush decrease" plasma.From this information, it is possible to infer useful constraints on theorientation and extent of solar ejecta. The principal efforts will be to closea coverage gap by constructing a full-size muon detector at the Southern SpaceObservatory, in Sao Martinho, Brazil, and to add features to their website(www.bartol.udel.edu/~neutronm/) giving real-time graphical displays of cosmicray density gradients, angular anisotropies, and bi-directional flows.

Daniell,Robert E. / Computational Physics Inc

SpaceWeather: Modeling of Thermospheric Disturbances and Associated NegativeIonospheric Storms

Theproposed research project builds on the previously demonstrated capability toretrieve O/N2 column density ratios from Far Ultraviolet (FUV) images obtainedfrom the DE 1 satellite and the resulting demonstration of the correlationbetween large "clouds" of reduced O/N2 and reduced Nmax observed byground based ionosondes. The proposed research will carry this program forwardby making use of additional ionospheric data, specifically, topside soundingsobtained from the ISIS 1 and 2 satellites, incoherent scatter radar (ISR) data,and satellite in situ data during 1981 and 1982. By providing topside electrondensity profiles during negative ionospheric storms, these data will constrainionospheric and thermospheric models and allow the estimation of neutraldensity profiles during these events. The ultimate goal of the research programis to improve and enhance the ability to model thermospheric and ionosphericbehavior during geomagnetic storms, and to increase the understanding of theimpact of geomagnetic storms on the midlatitude thermosphere and ionosphere.

deToma,Giuliana / University Corporation For Atmospheric Res

SpaceWeather: Inferring the Speeds of Earth-Directed Coronal Mass Ejections UsingHeI 1083nm Velocity Observations

Determiningthe speeds of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is very important for determiningwhen a CME on the solar disk will impact the Earth. The head-on speed of a CMEis very difficult to measure directly and this project will investigate thepossibility of using measurements of the associated filaments to determine thespeed of the CME. Observations in the Helium I (HeI) emission at 1032 nm willbe used for this purpose. The data will be obtained from the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory.The HeI 1083 nm data will then be compared with data from the Large AngleSpectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (LASCO) on the SOHO satellite. Inaddition, the project will use magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations of thepropagation of CMEs to help refine the predicted Earth impact times.

Duggirala,Pallamraju / Boston University

SpaceWeather: Use of Thermospheric Oxygen Dayglow Emissions for Obtaining Precursorsto Equatorial Spread-F (ESF)

The PIproposes to carry out systematic investigations for obtaining precursors to theenigmatic occurrence of the Equatorial Spread-F (ESF) using daytimethermospheric optical emission measurements from the South American longitudeusing high-resolution optical spectrographs built at Boston University. ESFrefers to the presence of irregularities in the nighttime equatorialionosphere. Unlike substorms and geomagnetic storms, ESF is a form of spaceweather not controlled exclusively by the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF).ESF irregularities have a severe impact on radio communications andnavigational systems at a wide range of frequencies that adversely affectcommercial and defense applications. The development of these irregularities ishighly unpredictable. Even during the 'ESF' season when various onsetparameters are nearly identical, ESF occurs on one night and is completelyabsent on the other. Scientifically, this is a missing element in ourunderstanding of plasma instabilities at low latitudes. Hence, it is veryimportant to study and attempt to predict ESF and its adverse effects.

Emery,Barbara A. / University Corporation For Atmospheric Res

SpaceWeather: The Quantification and Validation of Variable Electrodynamic Forcingof the Thermosphere

Theobjective of this project is to improve estimates of the high latitudeelectrodynamic forcing of the thermosphere through quantification of variableelectric fields and auroral precipitation, and through analysis of theirinfluences on the thermosphere and on ionospheric currents. The PIs propose toconstruct an empirical model of high-latitude electric fields and auroralprecipitation that includes both average and variable components, and thatquantifies magnitudes, coherences, and the correlation between the field andthe precipitation. Data will come from the Dynamics Explorer-2 (DE-2)spacecraft and from incoherent scatter radars. The PIs will validate this newmodel by using it as input to the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-ElectrodynamicsGeneral Circulation Model (TIE-GCM) and comparing their results withhigh-latitude observations of ground magnetic variations and neutralthermospheric winds and temperatures, including both mean values and standarddeviations.

Erickson,William C. / Erickson, William C

SpaceWeather: The Continued Operation of the Bruny Island Radio Spectrometer

Theoperation of the Bruny Island Radio Spectrometer will be secured for the nextfive years. This facility makes radio observations between 3 MHz and 47 MHz,and has pioneered the use of modern digital techniques to avoid and largelyexcise the very strong terrestrial radio interference that is normallyprevalent in this frequency band. It is the only instrument in the world thatbridges the gap between low frequency solar radio observations made from spaceand the higher frequency observations made from the Earth's surface. As such,it will continue to provide unique observations capable of trackinginterplanetary shock accelerated particle events between where the space-basedobservatories cutoff and where the ground-based receivers begin. Ancillaryactivities will address how the observed type II and type III radio bursts arerelated to the generation of solar energetic particles.

Forbes,Jeffrey M. / University of Colorado at Boulder

SpaceWeather: Thermospheric Density and Wind Perturbations during GeomagneticallyDisturbed Periods

As partof this project, densities and cross-track (quasi-zonal) winds at 400-450 kmwill be derived from accelerometer measurements by the STAR accelerometerexperiment on the CHAMP and GRACE satellites from 2000 through 2004. On astorm-by-storm basis, the magnitude of storm response, degree of equatorwardpenetration, time delays, and other characteristics of the densityperturbations will be examined, interpreted and compared with predictions byempirical models. Wind patterns will also be derived and interpreted. The fulldata set will be deposited in the CEDAR database. Corrections will be made tothe J70 model currently in use at NORAD, so as to better reproduce the observeddensity perturbations.

Hajj,George / University of Southern California

SpaceWeather: Specification of Ionospheric Irregularities by Use of DiffractionTomography

Thepurpose of this study is to capitalize on several mature technologies to obtainregional and global maps of ionospheric irregularities and some of theirstatistical properties (e.g., second moment) by use of diffraction tomography.In utilizing the GPS signals for 3D mapping of ionospheric irregularities, weare taking advantage of (1) the growing number of space receivers recording GPSphase and amplitude data while occulting behind the ionosphere, (2) the verydense regional networks and large global networks of GPS ground receiversproviding over 30 million links per day through the ionosphere, (3) advancesmade in ionospheric tomography and data assimilation techniques, (4) advancesmade in diffraction tomography.

Hesse,Michael / National Aeronautics & Space Admin Goddard Space Flight Center

Metrics-BasedEvaluation and Science Based Validation of Space Physics Models at theCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)

TheCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is an interagency center devotedto space weather modeling and prediction. One of the goals of the CCMC is todetermine which space weather models are appropriate for use in operationalspace weather forecasting. This project will examine the various metrics andscientific validation methods that should be applied to space weather models.The CCMC staff will perform direct data-model comparisons for space weatherevents. It will also provide an independent, unbiased forum for calculating theprediction or nowcasting metrics for different space weather models. Inaddition to the calculation of metrics and general scientific validation ofmodels, the CCMC will explore the models performances under different spaceweather conditions to determine the limits under which the models can be used.

Holt,John M. / Massachusetts Institute of Technology

SpaceWeather: Construction of Web-based Empirical Models of the Earth's IonosphereUsing Data from Multiple Incoherent Scatter Radars

Constructionof three comprehensive web-based models of the ionosphere using data from eightincoherent scatter radars (ISRs) is proposed. These models will greatly extendrecent models based on data from the Millstone Hill ISR. The model will includethree main parts. The first two are North American and European regional modelsof basic and derived scalar parameters, including electron density (Ne), electronand ion temperature (Te and Ti), neutral meridional wind and exospherictemperature: the third is a model of the ExB plasma drifts and correspondingelectrostatic potential patterns as obtained by the EISCAT mainland and VHFradars. The North American regional model will be based on data from theSondrestromfjord, Millstone Hill and Arecibo ISRs. The European regional modelwill be based on data from the EISCAT Svalbard, EISCAT mainland UHF and VHF,Kharkov and St. Santin ISRs. The parameters to be modeled have been identifiedby the National Space Weather Program (NSWP) Implementation Plan as importantones which must be specified and forecast in response to customer operationalsupport requirements. All of them have also been identified by the NSWP MetricsPanel as either first, second or third priority parameters which define thestate and condition of the ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) system. Thehigh-latitude electric field and its variability has also been identified bythe Metrics Panel as one of two first priority "driver" parameters ofthe IT system.

Jackson,Bernard V. / University of California-San Diego

SpaceWeather: Real-Time Analysis of Heliospheric Plasma and Magnetic StructuresUsing Remote-Sensing Observations

Atomographic technique will be used to map solar wind structures, determine theextent of their interactions with the Earth, and locate their origins in thesolar corona. The basic input data are interplanetary radio scintillationmeasurements supplied by the Solar Terrestrial Environment Laboratory of theNagoya University (Japan). These are combined with a sophisticated numericalmagnetohydrodynamic model of the heliosphere in order to reconstruct thetrajectories of propagating interplanetary disturbances. This technique will beapplied in real-time to ground and space-based data, and the results will bemade available to the international community through the NOAA web-site. Thisstudy will allow the visualization of the extensive region between the Sun andthe Earth with a novel level of completeness.

LI,Yan / University of California-Berkeley

SpaceWeather: Applications of Global Oscillations Network Group (GONG+) Magnetograms

GlobalOscillations Network Group (GONG+) magnetograms will be employed as theprincipal data set to study the evolution of the solar photospheric magneticfield, and its relationship with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Potential-fieldsource-surface (PFSS) coronal models will be constructed using the GONG+ datato specify the inner boundary condition. These will form the basis for thesynthesis of specialized synoptic maps aimed at, (1) establishing the locationof source surface magnetic neutral lines, (2) predicting solar windcharacteristics based on the Wang-Sheeley model, and (3) delineating the evolutionof open and close magnetic field regions. This information will be posted on areal time updated web site and delivered to the NOAA/Space Environment Centerwebsite. This effort will be essential for understanding the impacts of activeregion emergence and fragmentation on the evolution of the large-scale coronalmagnetic field.

Lyons,Lawrence R. / University of California-Los Angeles

CollaborativeResearch: Space Weather--Self-Consistent Modeling of Inner Magnetosphere UnderEnhanced Convections

Thisproject will develop a self-consistent model of the near-Earth portion of theplasma sheet. It will specify the particle distributions, the effects of theplasma sheet on the magnetic field, and the effects of the plasma sheet on theformation of the ring current during magnetic storms. The approach will be touse test particle tracing techniques in conjunction with an MHD code. Thetechnique will couple the particle tracing with the MHD modeling in a way thatwill produce a self-consistent model without using the basic MHD approximationsthat are invalid within the inner plasma sheet. This approach has already beenused in modeling the quiet-time plasma sheet and the method will now beextended to conditions of enhanced convection, including the growth phase ofsubstorms and convection bays (steady magnetospheric convection). During thelater stages of the project the model will be extended beyond a 2-D plasmasheet model to include field-aligned currents within the plasma sheet.

McPherron,Robert L. / University of California-Los Angeles

SpaceWeather: A Search for the Cause of Steady Magnetospheric Convection

Thisproject will determine a well-defined set of rules for identifying periods ofSteady Magnetospheric Convection (SMC). An automated procedure will beestablished to go through a large database of satellite and ground-based datato identify SMC periods. Once a database of SMC periods had been generated theproject will then utilize that database to perform statistical analyses on theconditions under which SMCs arise. If a clear set of solar wind andmagnetospheric conditions can be identified as the generators of SMCs, anexpert system will then be developed for making for detailed nowcasts andforecasts of space weather.

Ofman,Leon / Catholic University of America

SpaceWeather: A Geometric Model Applied to Earth-directed LASCO Halo Coronal MassEjections (CMEs)

Aninnovative, but relatively simple, model will be applied to solar Coronal MassEjection (CME) observations made with the LASCO instrument on board the SOHOspacecraft. Starting with data obtained in 1996, some 150 Earth-directed, orso-called "halo", CMEs will be analyzed using a conical modeloriginally developed by Zhao, Plunkett and Liu. From this model one may, inprincipal, be able to deduce sizes and transit times of geoeffective CMEs. Thisinformation would be extremely useful to Space Weather Forecasters. If themethod proves to be effective, a second component of this effort would involveworking with Space Weather Forecasters at NOAA's Space Environment Center todevelop efficient operational techniques to estimate CME travel times based onsequences of LASCO images.

Richardson,John D. / Massachusetts Institute of Technology

SpaceWeather: Solar Wind Events as Predictors of Geomagnetic Response

Collaborativeactivities with the Institute of Ionosphere and Terrestrial Magnetism(IZMARIN), and the Institute of Space Research of the Russian Academy ofSciences (IKI) will be carried out through joint projects and studentexchanges. The joint activities will address, (1) the relationship betweeninterplanetary shock parameters and their geoeffectiveness, (2) the effect ofsharp solar wind pressure pulses upon the Earth's magnetosphere, (3) therefinement of a neural network prediction scheme to determine how well a solarwind monitor will predict plasma flux and velocity and magnetic fields atEarth, and (4) comparisons between the time integral of the z-component of theinterplanetary magnetic field observed at the L1 Lagrange point and otherspacecraft.

Sigsbee,Kristine / University of Iowa

SpaceWeather: Observations and Modeling of the Space Weather Effects ofMagnetospheric Convection

Thisproject will utilize data from the Geotail and Wind satellites to characterizethe state of the Earth's plasma sheet during different geomagnetic conditions.It will examine the differences seen during periods of steady magnetosphericconvection (SMC), magnetic substorms and magnetic storms. Additional data willbe obtained from the Cluster satellite mission, in particular using the wideband plasma wave data and the electron drift (EDI) data. Additional data setswill include ground magnetometer data and geomagnetic indices as well as datafrom the ACE and WIND spacecraft specifying the conditions in the solar wind(interplanetary magnetic field and the solar wind speed and dynamic pressure).

Strangeway,Robert J. / University of California-Los Angeles

SpaceWeather: Factors Controlling Ionospheric Outflow

Thisproject will analyze data from the Fast Auroral Snapshot Small Explorer (FAST)satellite in conjunction with solar wind data from the ACE and WIND spacecraft.It will examine the processes that control the outflow of ions from the polarionosphere. In particular it will determine the relative importance of largescale Joule heating, Alfven wave heating and heating due to electronprecipitation. The work will produce a set of empirical scaling laws that canbe used to parameterize ion outflow rates as a function of the various inputs.It will also relate the outflow rates to the solar wind input parameters.

Toffoletto,Frank R. / William Marsh Rice University

SpaceWeather: Initial Development of an Analysis Model of the Inner Magnetosphere

Thisproject will develop ad space weather analysis model for use in the preparationof space weather maps and space weather forecasting. The analysis model will bedriven by data from spacecraft in geosynchronous, geosynchronous-transfer andpolar low-Earth (LEO) orbits. Three components of space weather will beincluded in the analysis model: (1) the magnetic field, (2) fluxes ofradiation-belt (high energy) particles, and (3) fluxes of keV electrons. Foreach of these components, the analysis model will include four elements: (a) anempirical model, (b) observational data, (c) the model error-covariance matrix,and (d) a physics based model checker/corrector. The checker/correctorcomponent will ensure that the model is consistent with physical laws.

Tsyganenko,Nikolai A. / Universities Space Research Association

SpaceWeather: Modeling of the Open Magnetosphere Using Large Sets of Spacecraft Data

Thisproject will improve current models of the Earth's magnetic field at highlatitudes and at larger distances from the Earth than current models. The newmodel will include a model of the location of the magnetopause that depends onsolar wind pressure and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The twistingof the cross-tail current sheet in response to the By-component of the IMF willbe included in the model as will the deep depression of the magnetic field inthe magnetospheric cusp due to the diamagnetic effect of magnetosheath plasma.The model will be distributed to the scientific community via the NationalSpace Science Data Center (NSSDC) web site.