Research in Support of the National Space Weather Program

Abstracts ofAwards FY2000

Below are listed Principal Investigator (PI) name,Institution, Title, and Abstract of Proposals awarded under the researchprogram in Support of the National Space Weather Program in 2000.

Arge,Charles N. / University of Colorado at Boulder

SpaceWeather: An Operational Sun-to-Earth Model

Theinvestigators will develop a simplified model to explore issues relating tooperational aspects of Sun-Earth space weather models. The main effort is tocombine a set of readily modified models in a modular architecture to allowextensive experimentation with ingesting and assimilating real time data, errorhandling, linkages, verification, display, archiving, and other operationalrequirements. The set of models will consist of simple physics-based andsemi-empirical models, as well as modest magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models thatcan be run efficiently on workstations. The model will be made available to theCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) so that may become an operationaltool accessible to the space weather community.

Burns,Alan G. / HAO

Space Weather: Studies of Thermospheric-IonosphericCoupling at Low Latitudes During Geomagnetic Storms

Abstractmissing

Chakrabarti,Supriya / Boston University

SpaceWeather: A Search for Obtaining Precursors to ESF Using Thermospheric DayglowEmissions

Theinvestigators will study the occurrence of Equatorial Spread F (ESF), which areirregularities in the nighttime equatorial ionosphere that cause disruption tocommunication and navigation signals. The development of these irregularitiesis highly unpredictable, but some studies have shown the existence of aprecursor signature in oxygen dayglow emissions from the thermosphere. Theinvestigators have developed an optical instrument capable of observing faintoxygen emission line intensities buried in the strong daytime backgroundcontinuum. They will carry out these measurements with an aim to predict theESF occurrence over South American longitudes from the Paranal observatory inChile. The measurements will be combined with those of other opticalinstruments and radars in South America to establish the existence of precursorsignatures to equatorial spread F. The development of a technique forpredicting ESF will help to mitigate the effects these irregularities have ontechnical systems.

Crooker,Nancy U. / Boston University

ShineWorkshop Coordination

Theinvestigators will foster the development of SHINE (Solar and HeliosphericINterplanetary Environment), an affiliation of researchers dedicated topromoting enhanced understanding of and predictive capabilities for solardisturbances that propagate to earth. SHINE is patterned on the successful GEM(Geospace Environment Modeling) and CEDAR (Coupling, Energetics, and Dynamicsof Atmospheric Regions). Activities will consist primarily of organizing andcoordinating workshops, and providing limited travel support to attend theseworkshops.

Crowley,Geoffrey / Southwest Research Institute

M-ICoupling: Quantifying High Latitude Electric Field and Conductance Variability

Theinvestigators will study electric field and conductance variability in the highlatitude ionosphere. The study will be conducted using the Assimilative Mappingof Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE) model for a large number of intervals forwhich a variety of ground-based and space-based measurements are available. Thestudy addresses three scientific questions: (1) What are the spatial andtemporal scales of structures in the electric field in the ionosphere? (2) Whatare the spatial and temporal scales of structures in the ionosphericconductance? (3) How do the structured electric field and conductance affectthe global Joule heating? The variability of electric fields and conductancesfrom the AMIE model will be summarized as a function of magnetic latitude,magnetic local time, and geomagnetic activity. The analysis will provideguidance on the amount of variability being omitted in models that have coarserspatial and temporal scales. It also provides guidance on the geophysicalprocesses that need to be understood before physics-based models can completelycapture the variability and its effects. The ultimate objective is a betterunderstanding of the coupling between the thermosphere, ionosphere, andmagnetosphere during geomagnetically disturbed conditions.

Falconer,David / University of Alabama in Huntsville

SpaceWeather: Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejection from Vector Magnetograms

Theinvestigator will develop quantitative measures of the global non-potentialityof solar active regions in order to predict generation of flare-associatedcoronal mass ejections (CMS) by these active regions. The main effort is toexpand the results of a promising pilot study of four active regions to astatistical meaningful sample of 30-40 active regions. In the pilot study, twonew measures of non-potentiality were developed (global net current flow andlength of the main neutral line) and found to be correlated with each other andwith the overall non-potentiality of the active regions. In addition, two casesin which these parameters were unusually large produced CME. The expanded studywill: (1) Test the tentative conclusions of the pilot study. (2) Search forother correlations. (3) Investigate the relationship of the new measures to thepreviously observed sigmoidal structures. (4) Develop techniques to apply thenew measures to operational forecasting.

Fedder,Joel A. / George Mason University

SpaceWeather: Modeling Polar Cap Dynamics

Theinvestigators will study the dependence of polar cap dynamics on solar windconditions using a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code. The model results will becompared with observations of polar cap dynamics obtained using optical datafrom Eureka, Canada. Particular emphasis will be placed on periods when theinterplanetary magnetic field makes pronounced changes in direction and theoptical data show distinct auroral behavior. Simulation results will be used tospecify the polar cap boundaries which will be compared to the Eurekameasurements or satellite images, when available. The research results willform the basis for improved models of the polar magnetic field, for predictionof solar particle entry regions, and for predicting trajectories to satelliteand ionospheric altitudes. The results will also enhance understanding of thedynamics and origins of polar cap aurora. MHD models have great potential inhelping to mitigate the potential hazards on technological systems due to spaceweather effects.

Gary,Dale E. / Foundation @ NJIT, New Jersey Institute of Technology

SpaceWeather: Solar Radio Noise and Its Effect On Wireless Communication

Theinvestigators will specify solar radio flux density levels and fluctuations asa function of frequency and as a function of solar cycle phase. The main effortis to analyze three datasets: (1) Fixed frequency radio burst measurementsobservations obtained over the past forty years from a network (RSTN) operatedby the United States Air Force. (2) Data from the Phoenix-2 spectrometeroperated by ETH in Zurich, Switzerland. (3) The solar radio burst locator atthe Owens Valley Radio Observatory. The analysis will provide statisticalmeasures of importance to designers of modern communications systems. Theanalysis will also determine whether an observed saturation of RSTN data onsolar events at high flux density is instrumental in origin or is inherent tothe physical process on the Sun. Result of this determination are of direct interestto solar physics.

Knipp,Delores J. / United States Air Force Academy

SpaceWeather Climatology of High Latitude Electrodynamics

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Liou,Kan / Johns Hopkins University

SpaceWeather: Investigation of Substorm Trigger, Onset Location, and Intensity

Theinvestigators will study magnetospheric substorms using data from the Polar,Geotail, IMP 8, and GOES satellites as well as ground-based observations.Specific research topics include (1) the substorm triggering mechanism, (2) thespatial extent and structure of the magnetotail stretching at geosynchronousaltitude, (3) substorm onset location as influenced by solar wind conditions,the relationship between the pre-onset magnetotail stretching and substormintensity, and (5) magnetotail signatures at geosynchronous orbit prior topseudo-breakups. The study takes advantage of the high-quality data collectedduring the International Solar Terrestrial Physics Program. The investigatorswill establish a data base of observations and conduct statistical studies.Substorms play a central role in the dynamics of Earth's magnetosphere.Understanding substorm triggering is one of the key roadblocks in predictingSpace Weather.

Reiner,Michael J. / Raytheon Technical Services Company

SpaceWeather: Characteristics and Dynamics of CME Induced Radio Emissions

Theinvestigators will produce a comprehensive picture of the coronal mass ejection(CME) phenomenon as viewed at radio wavelengths from lift-off at the sunthrough the response of the terrestrial magnetosphere to its passage. The maineffort is to continue to synthesize radio data from the Wind and Ulyssesspacecraft, SOHO coronagraph data, ground-based data, and corollarymeasurements from instruments monitoring the solar wind and energetic particleenvironment. The work builds on several significant advances made in a previousaward from NSF. The investigators developed triangulation methods that permitinvestigators to track the sources of radio waves (CMEs and finite regions alongtheir boundaries) as they move out from the sun long after they cease to bevisible to SOHO instruments. With this technique, regions where the radio wavesoriginate are identified to allow detailed study, using the multiple supportingdatasets, of the physical processes that produce the waves.

Richmond,Arthur D. / University Corporation For Atmospheric Res

Space Weather: Development of models of globalthermosphere-ionosphere disturbances

Abstractmissing

Ridley,Aaron J. / University of Michigan Ann Arbor & Vassiliadis, Dimitrios/Universities Space Research Association

CollaborativeResearch: Space Weather: Creation of a Real Time Ionospheric ElectrodynamicsForecasting Model

Thiscollaborative proposal focuses on the creation and validation of a communitybased real-time and retrospective high-latitude ionospheric electrodynamicsspecification and forecasting tool. At it's core, the tool will have theassimilative mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics (AMIE) technique. The modelwill make predictions of the eletrodynamic state of the high-latitudeionosphere for up to 60 minutes ahead of time. In addition, the PIs will makethe code available to the community through a simple graphical user interfacewhich will allow community members to run AMIE for their campaigns.

The creation of the predictive model will give fundamental insight into manynon-steady-state magnetospheric processes, such as substroms and storms byallowing a quantitative examination of how the state of the magnetosphere and ionosphereare dependent both on the current state and the external driving conditions.

The PI's will perform a quantitative validation of AMIE and rtAMIE. Thevalidation will give average error estimates for each grid point on AMIE forthe ionospheric potential and conductances. These error estimates will befunctions of: (1) location, (2) data density, (3) activity level, and(4)season. This quantitative validation will allow users of the code to fullyunderstand the accurarcy of the results. No other electric potential model hasthis capability, even though it is crucially important for studies ofionospheric and magnetospheric phenomena.

Sanchez,Ennio / SRI International

SpaceWeather: Capturing Events and Their Geoeffectiveness

The PIproposes to develop a concept that will improve the possibility of observingthe impact of space weather on the magnetosphere-ionosphere system, and thatwill address fundamental physical processes related to space weather phenomena.This will be done by focusing operations of sensitive ground based equipment tooccur during potentially disruptive space weather conditions. By analyzingthese observations in conjunction with spacecraft observations, SRI can developan improved understanding of the coupling between the solar wind andmagnetosphere and between the magnetosphere and ionosphere (generally termedspace weather "geoeffectiveness"). Thus, the overall objective of theproposal is to observe and analyze space weather geoeffectiveness byimplementing an operational phase and a basic research phase to the program.The operational phase of the program is designed to provide a space weatheralert system that notifies observers of solar and space conditions during timesof activity so that appropriate planning of ground-based operations can beestablished. The development and implementation of such an alert protocol forthe incoherent-scatter radar community was established under past NSWP funding.The basic research phase of the program is designed to study the geoeffectivenessof the space weather event by analyzing data in the form of substorms, storms,and convection bays. As the acquired data sets will benefit all of thesetopics, it is anticipated that the results will contribute to a number of spaceweather research programs, present and future.

Sharma,A. Surjalal / University of Maryland College Park

SpaceWeather: Forecasting of Geomagnetic Activity Using Multi-Spacecraft andGround-based Data

Thisproject will apply phase-space reconstruction techniques to ground-basedmagnetometer data and data from a number of spacecraft in the solar wind inwithin the magnetosphere to predict important space weather indices such as ALand Dst. The project will also investigate the possibility of using criticalbehavior (in particular self-organized criticality) as a complement to currentspace weather forecasting tools.

Shue,Jih-Hong / Johns Hopkins University

SpaceWeather: Investigation of Intense Growth Phase Events of Substorms UsingMultiple Observations

Theinvestigators will study intense substorm growth phase events using multipleobservations. Some intense growth phase events do not lead to well-definedsubstorms, suggesting a different kind of energy release mechanism. Intensegrowth phase events will be identified from a database containing solar winddata, auroral imaging data, particle precipitation measurements, andground-based magnetometer and radar observations. The data will be studied todetermine criteria for predicting strong growth phase events. The observationscollectively will allow the investigators to identify the cause of intensegrowth phase events and understand why some do not develop into strong clearsubstorms. Because strong growth phase events are often assumed to beprecursors to strong substorms, this study will help eliminate false alarms inthe prediction of space weather effects on technological systems such ascommunications and power lines.

Takahashi,Kazue / Johns Hopkins University

SpaceWeather: Low-Latitude Signatures of Substorm Processes

Theinvestigators will study the relationship between Pi2 waves detected byground-based magnetometers and magnetospheric substorm occurrence. Pi2 wavesare routinely detected by ground magnetometers located at low- to mid-latitudesand their general association with substorms is well recognized. However,further analysis of Pi2 waves is required in order to make the phenomenon amore reliable tool for space weather specification and prediction. Physicalparameters of Pi2 waves observed at multiple stations can be used to monitorthe spatial and temporal development of substorms during the expansion andrecovery phases. The investigators will quantitatively evaluate the capabilityof the Pi2 waves for monitoring substorm activity. They will use auroral imagesfrom the Polar satellite to identify the time and location of substorm onsetsto compare with Pi2 waves detected on the ground. The results will lead to abetter understanding of substorms and to the development of a technique toremotely sense the time and location of substorms.

Tsunoda,Roland T. / SRI International

SpaceWeather: Monitoring and Forecasting Equatorial Spread-F from the Pohnpei Radar

The PIproposes to conduct a three-year research program to develop a short-termforecasting capability that can predict the occurrence of equatorial spread F(ESF). SRI proposes to augment the cluster of sensors at the Pohnpei RadarObservatory (PRO) with an oblique-incidence backscatter (OIB) soundingcapability so that the PRO can be used to collect the much-needed simultaneousmeasurements of electric field and plasma-density distribution. The PRO alreadyhouses a 50 MHz backscatter radar, a frequency-agile radar (FAR), and amagnetometer; all are capable of contributing estimates of the equatorialelectric field at different (but overlapping) times of the day. The OIB sounderwould provide a description of the plasma-density distribution in bothhemispheres. With this set of sensors, the PRO would become an ideal prototypefor an integrated, ESF space-weather monitoring station. SRI envisions theproposed research to be a synergistic one that will enable physics-based modelsto be run with critical data sets, and data to be properly interpreted with theassistance of model outputs.

Wang,Haimin / Foundation @ NJIT, New Jersey Institute of Technology

SpaceWeather Predictions at Big Bear Solar Observatory

Theinvestigators will use Big Bear Solar Observatory (California) and the HuairouSolar Observatory (China) vector magnetographs to measure shear properties ofthe photospheric magnetic field. The main effort is to derive the shearproperties from data acquired, and to make the information widely available ona web site for use as a flare predictor. The investigators will also implement a24-hour high-resolution and high-cadence network (California, China, Austria)to observe the Sun in the spectral line H-alpha, developing automaticmonitoring for flux emergence and on-disk filament eruptions. These resultswill also be made available on a web site for use in space weather forecasting.This network will also be used to improve the classic "Bear Alerts"and make them more complete. Any of the three stations will be able to initiatean alert - yielding a duty cycle over 80%. The investigation will include astatistical study of the relation between filament eruptions and observedgeomagnetic storms, and comparison of observations with a specific (Chen CME)model.

Williams,Lance / TRW Systems Integration Group

SpaceWeather Domain Modularization for a Community Coordinated Modeling Center(CCMC) Architecture

Thepurpose of this project is to produce computer tools for the CommunityCoordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). It is the development of an enablingtechnology that will facilitate the use of the CCMC for space weather research.Industry standard message passing techniques will be used to allow differentmodels to be coupled together. Similar tools will provide access to archive andreal-time data. In addition, easy-to-use graphical display systems will bedeveloped. This computer architecture will facilitate the transition ofresearch models to operational models, which is one of the main purposes of theCCMC.